Trentham: Pick Six

If you are anything like me you can probably relate to Trentham's reputation as a punters graveyard and picking winners this weekend will be even tougher than usual with some open fields and an anticipated genuine dead surface. Reports that the inside maybe off adds to the puzzle.

The first leg looks Abraham Lincoln's but the lack of pace is a slight concern. It may only have been Wairarapa but Benzini won well; he showed a lot of speed to circle them and was going away from the second place-getter Corporal Lincoln - who has won since - on the line. Weissmuller is a lovely cut of a thoroughbred and in time he'll be competitive in stakes company. The progressive filly Blanket Bay maybe the blowout; I tend to forgive horses their second-up run in a first preparation so don't be put off by the fact that it was on a Dead surface - the stock of Darci Brahma generally like the cut out.

2nd Leg: A small mare, Glad will appreciate the light weight and all she needs is an economical trip close to the speed to win this. Savour the Moment won a strong race last time and drops to a winnable weight. A course and distance winner of the Wellington Stakes on a soft track, Joey Massino should be be getting near peak fitness after such a long time out and with the anticipated dead track he looks well placed. Sangster turned in a super effort in the Rich Hill and while the 1600m will probably be too short now, if the track is playing to those coming down the outside he is a winning chance.

3rd Leg: Spiro looks a weight special and goes particularly well here. So far the signs are that On The Level is close to recapturing the form he showed at three and while he looked a little dour last start I wonder whether the step to 2100m third-up after two years out is too bigger hurdle. On his best form and this weight he wins this comfortably, so you need to include him. Floria looks nicely placed to dictate a soft speed and her record past 1600m is better than it reads, but it's imperative that the track surface is on the better side of Dead. Patiently handled, The Solitaire has always looked a mare who would get over ground with maturity and she was doing her best work late at Timaru.

4th Leg: The Knight has a strong record and looks nicely placed here. The biggest dangers look to be Have No Mercy who goes well left handed and is a solid type capable of carrying weight, and so long as the track gets back to a Dead 4, Arietta, who looks well suited to the step to 1400m. If the cut is out of the track, Scarlet O'Hara can figure.

5th Leg: Fascinating open race with so many classy milers taking on the pure sprinters. I'm planning on taking a spread and putting in Durham Town, Xanadu, Nashville and Sir Lovesalot. There looks enough speed for the likes of Nashville in particular to get home strongly - remember Mufhasa won this race at his next start after winning the Couplands Mile.

Final Leg: London Dream and Prepared were stiff at their last starts both of which will be strong form races. Jonathan Riddell jumping on Don't Dilly Dally is a big plus for her chances and she drops a rating band and she also had no luck last start.

A cheaper ticket option maybe: Abraham Lincoln and Weismuller/Savour The Moment, Joey Massino and Glad/Spiro and On The Level/ The Knight/Durham Town, Xanadu, Nashville and Sir Lovesalot/London Dream and Don't Dilly Dally.

Best of luck.