Trentham Pick 6 26 January

 It doesn't get any easier. Anyone getting a piece of the jackpot will deserve it.

 Leg 1: Find it difficult to separate the first four, who rate clearly ahead of the remainder. Soriano disappointed me at little at Auckland; I thought the tracks would be to her liking. In saying that there is no Fix today although she likely strikes a very firm track which I suspect she is vulnerable on. High Fashion, who can really let down, is the emerging horse and deserves consideration. Omana maybe the blowout but her lack of experience will count against her.

 Leg 2: Probably perceived as the toughest leg by a lot of punters although some of the better fancied runners may struggle to get a genuine 2400m at Trentham. The race maps to have some speed so Don Domingo and Phantom Storm are proven stayers, well weighted and need to go in. Lady Platinum is an improving type who has a good preparation and Our Milly Smith should run the trip although she is weighted poorly. Monachee was competitive in a better field on Monday and whacks away at the one pace; she is the blowout.

 Leg 3: Viadana, Nashville and Miss Pelear are clearly on top here. Viadana always runs time and although beaten into tenth at her latest effort, it was meritorious given the passage she received and my only concern is that it may have knocked her. Full Of Spirit had a lot more in her favour than Viadana and Miss Pelear at Ellerslie last start and is unlikely to get the same breaks this time with the draws. Historian is the unknown: a class act as a three-year-old before going to Hong Kong, he's had no real luck since been home and is the blowout.

 Leg 4: A good horse's race this, often won by something carrying plenty of weight. You can feel comfortable enough with just Classcoroc and Patrimonium on a ticket. The former is not badly weighted for a last start winner in Open company while Patrimonium won a particularly strong race more comfortably than the margin suggests at her last start. The Irish bred mare's coat is acclimatising all the time and her raceday efforts substantiate that. Zumba and Moneytree deserve consideration.

 Leg 5: Ransomed and O'Fille are clearly on top. Ransomed looked in need of the run in the Marton Cup and the race was not run to suit, yet still won. He is one of the most improved horses in training but continues to step up each time he goes to the races. O'Fille seems to be the horse that has beaten the handicapper, often a great pointer in the big Cup races, and with the Trentham Stakes usually such a good guide, only bad luck stops her figuring in the finish.

 Leg 6:  I confess to not knowing much about the formlines here. Workingclass is one I have followed and form in a strong Saturday Rating 65 field warrants her consideration. La Clairette and Aloe go in more on pedigree than anything else. I clearly need to do some more study.

A cheaper ticket option maybe: Lucky Country, Lovetessa and High Fashion/Don Domingo and Phantom Storm/Viadana, Nashville and Miss Pelear/Classcoroc and Patrimonium/Ransommed and O'Fille/Workingclass, La Clairette and Aloe.

Best of luck.

Crested Wave: Like a Phoenix

Successful stallions are like ragwort or Winston Peters; they keep popping up long after you have given them up for dead. In the case of Crested Wave, whose passing in 2006 was merely a belated memorial to a commercial career that effectively ended in 1996 when he left Haunui Farm for the South Island, a  posthumous encore performance has come via the progeny of two of his broodmare daughters.

American Grade One winner Unusual Suspect (Unusual Heat - Penpont (NZ) by Crested Wave), 9th and 21st in the last two Melbourne Cups, broke through for his first win on Australian soil when successful in the Listed Werribee Cup on December 16. Unfortunatelyy the nine-year-old entire broke down at his following start in the Listed Bagot Handicap and is currently being advertised for sale as a stallion prospect.

While it was not a stakes performance the win by Don't Dilly Dally (Howbaddouwantit - Plume by Crested Wave) - the ninth and final foal of her multiple group winning mother - over 1600m at Trentham last Saturday held some merit. The five-year-old mare steps up markedly in class this weekend to tackle the Group One Thorndon Mile.

Crested Wave was purchased by a syndicate of New Zealand's leading farms for a reported NZ $1 million and commenced stud duties in 1982 at Haunui Farm in Brookby, South Auckland. A group one winning two-year-old who accomplished little in three seasons of racing after his juvenile year, the son of the little known Crozier immediately proved popular with local breeders, no doubt encouraged by the early stud success of the Canadian sprinter miler One Pound Sterling, which had "broken the ice"so to speak regarding the negative stigma that had existed towards American bred dirt track performers to that time.

In an era of considerable depth in our stallion ranks Crested Wave fashioned an excellent record as his eleven individual group one winners as both a sire and broodmare sire testify. To place in it perspective, Zabeel is the only New Zealand based stallion with progeny at Karaka next week to have sired more group one winners.

Crested Wave's stock excelled at 1600m - six of his progeny won group one contests at the distance - and they were particularly proficient when kept on the fresh side. As types they were generally only of medium build but very athletic and not endowed with too much condition which helped them race well in a fresh state. He left a number of good WFA performers including Cox Plate winner Surfers Paradise, Surface and the enigmatic Drought..

Although sharing the 1990/91 Filly of The Year title with Let's Sgor, Plume was clearly the best three-year-old filly of her year. The Paddy Bussutin trained filly won her first six starts that season, five of those in stakes races including the Group One 1000 Guineas, before tasting defeat at her last run for the season in the New Zealand Oaks, where after sitting three-wide for almost the entire journey, she was run down late by Let's Sgor.

Plume returned at four to win three listed sprints and the competitive Group Two Bluebird Foods Trophy (now the Rich Hill Mile) at Ellerslie. She failed to win in five starts the following season and retired with a record of 12 wins from 22 starts and earnings of $350,000.

Like many top racemares Plume's progeny never managed to attain the same heights on the racetrack as their mother. To a variety of stallions including Zabeel, Pins and Last Tycoon she left nine live foals, five of which have won. Her only stakesperformer to date is Mount Kosciusko (Zabeel), a $450,000 Karaka yearling who was stakesplaced in Adelaide.

Fairdale Stud and partners are breeding from Plume's second last foal, Revere, a two time winning daughter by Fairdale's disappointing former stallion Riveria. Revere's first foal an Ifraaj colt fetched $25,000 at last year's Karaka Select Sale.

The recent performances of Unusual Suspect and Don't Dilly Dally have served as a belated reminder of a stallion whose record at stud probably did not get the accolades it deserved. How fitting it would be if the final foal of one of his best performers could manage black-type success.

Trentham: Pick Six

If you are anything like me you can probably relate to Trentham's reputation as a punters graveyard and picking winners this weekend will be even tougher than usual with some open fields and an anticipated genuine dead surface. Reports that the inside maybe off adds to the puzzle.

The first leg looks Abraham Lincoln's but the lack of pace is a slight concern. It may only have been Wairarapa but Benzini won well; he showed a lot of speed to circle them and was going away from the second place-getter Corporal Lincoln - who has won since - on the line. Weissmuller is a lovely cut of a thoroughbred and in time he'll be competitive in stakes company. The progressive filly Blanket Bay maybe the blowout; I tend to forgive horses their second-up run in a first preparation so don't be put off by the fact that it was on a Dead surface - the stock of Darci Brahma generally like the cut out.

2nd Leg: A small mare, Glad will appreciate the light weight and all she needs is an economical trip close to the speed to win this. Savour the Moment won a strong race last time and drops to a winnable weight. A course and distance winner of the Wellington Stakes on a soft track, Joey Massino should be be getting near peak fitness after such a long time out and with the anticipated dead track he looks well placed. Sangster turned in a super effort in the Rich Hill and while the 1600m will probably be too short now, if the track is playing to those coming down the outside he is a winning chance.

3rd Leg: Spiro looks a weight special and goes particularly well here. So far the signs are that On The Level is close to recapturing the form he showed at three and while he looked a little dour last start I wonder whether the step to 2100m third-up after two years out is too bigger hurdle. On his best form and this weight he wins this comfortably, so you need to include him. Floria looks nicely placed to dictate a soft speed and her record past 1600m is better than it reads, but it's imperative that the track surface is on the better side of Dead. Patiently handled, The Solitaire has always looked a mare who would get over ground with maturity and she was doing her best work late at Timaru.

4th Leg: The Knight has a strong record and looks nicely placed here. The biggest dangers look to be Have No Mercy who goes well left handed and is a solid type capable of carrying weight, and so long as the track gets back to a Dead 4, Arietta, who looks well suited to the step to 1400m. If the cut is out of the track, Scarlet O'Hara can figure.

5th Leg: Fascinating open race with so many classy milers taking on the pure sprinters. I'm planning on taking a spread and putting in Durham Town, Xanadu, Nashville and Sir Lovesalot. There looks enough speed for the likes of Nashville in particular to get home strongly - remember Mufhasa won this race at his next start after winning the Couplands Mile.

Final Leg: London Dream and Prepared were stiff at their last starts both of which will be strong form races. Jonathan Riddell jumping on Don't Dilly Dally is a big plus for her chances and she drops a rating band and she also had no luck last start.

A cheaper ticket option maybe: Abraham Lincoln and Weismuller/Savour The Moment, Joey Massino and Glad/Spiro and On The Level/ The Knight/Durham Town, Xanadu, Nashville and Sir Lovesalot/London Dream and Don't Dilly Dally.

Best of luck.

Pedigree of the Week: Omana

It is debatable whether a better bred horse raced anywhere in the southern hemisphere on Saturday - or all week for that matter - than Omana (Bernadinni-Gussy Godiva). The John Bary trained three-year-old filly won her maiden over 1600m at Woodville, at her third career start.

Settling third on the rails for jockey Kelly Myers, the filly seemed to lack the confidence to take the gaps as they presented in the straight, but once urged through by Myers with 100m to go, she quickened like a good horse to race away and win by a length and a quarter from No Change (Shinko King). The race may have some depth to it as the runner-up was beaten two lengths by the promising Abraham Lincoln (O'Reilly) at his previous start.

Omana is the only filly foal to date from the 2009 New Zealand Broodmare of the Year Gussy Godiva (Last Tycoon-Sneetch). Sensibly she has been retained by her breeders, the Ormond family from Waipukurau in Southern Hawkes Bay.

Omana's distaff has Hurricane country roots deeper than Tui beer. The instigator is the wonderful Te Parae matron Sanderae (Oncidium-Nell by Knight's Romance) who has been quietly establishing her own dynasty as a taproot mare. The likes of recent Hong Kong Group One winner Glorious Days, American Group One winner Black Mamba (a half sister to Gussy Godiva), and Australian Group Two winner Torrio's Quest, all trace to her.

Gussy Godiva, whose first two foals were the Group Two Wellington Guineas winner Rios (Hussonet) and Group One AJC Derby winner Roman Emperor (Montjeu), had her fifth live foal, a Redoute's Choice colt, sell for $400,000 at last years Sydney Easter Yearling Sale. She delivered her sixth live foal, a colt by Medaglia D'Oro last September before been served by Redoute's Choice.

Gussy Godiva is an Australian metropolitan winning daughter of the outstanding broodmare influence Last Tycoon, while her second and third dams are daughters of leading broodmare stallions Grosvenor and Sound Reason respectively. Her fourth dam is Sanderae.

Omana's sire the Darley shuttler Bernadinni has made a spectacular start to his stallion career in the Northern Hemisphere with five group one winners in his first group, including one in England. While his impact downunder has been more subdued he does have a number of promising types headed by the Snowden pair of Meidung and Solemn, and Ruud Awakening, the current pre post favourite for the Karaka Million.

Omana is nominated for the New Zealand Oaks and while she will probably need at least another win or at least some stakes form to make the field, one would be game to bet against either outcome judging by her impressive win earlier today. While her connections will unquestionably seek black -type for her, Omana's pedigree already has sufficient depth and construction to guarantee her a place in any broodmare band.

Sultry Assassin: Keeping up a Trend

Since the New Zealand Oaks shifted to March, the Group Two Royal Stakes over 2000m on New Years Day at Ellerslie has become significantly less of a guide to the result of the Trentham Classic. However Sultry Assassin (Keeper-Blackrock College), who made ground stylishly from last at the turn to finish sixth in Tuesday's renewal, looks an improving type ideally suited to the timing and distance of the Oaks.

The rescheduling of the Oaks has made it an extremely difficult race for a filly who has targeted the competitive Filly of the Year series, to win. Nowadays the best Oaks form tends to come from those fillies who have either had a mid season break from the rigours of the series, or simply from an improving filly such as Sultry Assassin.

Success at Trentham for Sultry Assassin would maintain an astonishing record for her sire Keeper, whose daughters Keep The Peace and Midnight Oil were back to back winners in 2010 and 2011 respectively - astonishingly, another Keeper filly Can't Keeper Down was narrowly beaten by Jungle Rocket in 2009.

Sultry Assassin is clearly the most talented of the five foals of racing age left by her dam, Blackrock College (Volksraad-Marscade), herself an outstanding three-year of her time, winning twice at group three level and running second to Final Destination in the Group One New Zealand Two Thousand Guineas. Her other four foals to race have won just once, a maiden at Wanganui, from north of 50 accumulated starts.

While Sultry Assasin is the first show of form from her dam, the female family of Sultry Assassin has undergone significant rejuvenation over the last couple of years thanks to the broodmare prowress of Cashcade (Anziyan-Marscade), a half sister to Blackrock College.

Cashacde is yet another example of the wonderful ambiguities of breeding. Significantly inferior in racetrack
ability to her half sister and by Danehill's much maligned brother Anziyan, Cashcade has defied the odds and become a wonderful propagator of talent since her bargain basement purchase by Newmarket Lodge proprietor John O'Brien at the 2007 National Broodmare Sale. Her breeding record is well documented on this site but as an update, her unraced two-year-old Pentire filly Sabatini shows all the family ability on the training track, working the final 600m of a gallop in 35.5 last Saturday morning.

Unraced at two, Sultry Assassin debuted in September over 1200m at Taupo, finishing fourth after a tough run. She gave her first real hint of ability at her third start, when after sitting three and four wide throughout a 1600m maiden on Matamata Cup Day, she still had the audacity to hit the lead shortly after turning for home, before wilting to finish sixth, beaten less than three lengths. After that run the odds were never going to be fancy for her next start, again over 1600m, this time at Pukekohe where she waltzed home by over five lengths.

Next up, she settled a long way from the lead in a 1600m event at Te Rapa, before finishing strongly for third to the handy mare Classcoroc. Her final start before the Royal Stakes was the Group Three Eulogy Stakes over 1600m, where she finished solidly from midfield on the turn, beaten four lengths by the winner Soriano.

Despite a 28 November birthday, Sultry Assassin was a very well developed yearling when inspected as part of her breeder and vendor Cambridge Stud's 2011 Karaka Select Sale draft. Other prominent features noted on her catalogue page by my pen were her "ears", which were extremely big I recall, and an "excellent temperament". Paul Moroney - openly an advocate for big ears on a filly - purchased her for $80,000.

While a little shorter in the cannons and more upright through the shoulder than her relations Ekstreme and Pellegrini, she exhibited that same "rugged " type of strength that these days is often camouflaged at the yearling sale by muscle and condition.

While the superstitious are unlikely to look optimistically at Sultry Assassin's chances of adding further to the New Zealand Oaks record of her sire, she has the racing and pedigree profile to be a serious player in the Trentham Classic. Regardless of the outcome at Trentham, Sultry Assassin has exhibited sufficient ability in her short racing career to indicate black-type success should be just around the corner, which will make her a very valuable broodmare proposition, especially with the renaissance of her female family.

Footnote: Lot 494 in the upcoming Karaka Select Sale is a half sister to Sultry Assassin by first season sire Tavistock.