Melbourne Cup 101

So the Cup is over for another year and the punting post mortem's have begun.

The Cup was a kind race to me in the late 90's and early this millennium, but I had gone off the boil lately, largely due to the increasing competitiveness of the overseas horses and the myriad of different formlines they were bringing downunder. My luck turned this year, yet ironically European horses finished in the first six placings. Maybe the experience had made me wiser...

Excuse me for sounding a little bit like John Mitchell, but in success one should still analyse the accomplishment, as there is still much to learn.......so here it goes:

Dunaden: Watch, watch, watch and watch again. On my first look at the Geelong Cup replay I wasn't overly impressed. Sure he let down well to hit the front 200m out, but then he just seemed to flatten out. I didn't think for a moment it was in the same league as the Cup trials of Media Puzzle, She's Archie or Americain.

But the more times I watched the replay the wiser I became; Williams had deliberately dropped his hands when he hit the front, wanting the horse to have a softer run as possible.

Tanby's consistent form through the spring and his subsequent win in the Bendigo Cup were important pointers, however the clincher was probably Dunadens weight - the records show that 53.5kgs is such a winnable Cup weight.

Red Cadeaux: I liked the way he fought right to the line for a close third in the Irish St Leger. He was off the bit a long way out, and although the time was 7 seconds off standard, he kept closing on the dead heating winners. He carried over 60kgs at the Curragh that day and the race has been a good guide to Melbourne down the years with the likes of Vinnie Roe, Vintage Crop and Profound Beauty performing well in both races.

The clincher came with the Trackside preview show on Monday night. There was a shot of him being hotwalked at Werribee and despite an exercise blanket I could still see that he looked in excellent condition, especially in his coat, which was a rich dark red chestnut colour. Obviously he was warming to Melbourne  like his rugby team  had to Queenstown. Also his trainer Ed Dunlop knows how to travel a horse - he has done so fantastically well with the marvellous mare Snow Fairy - so despite not having had a run in Australia, he was looked well enough to risk.

Lucas Cranache: You knew the moment he started drifting alarmingly in the market for the Caulfield Cup that the stable knew they didn't have him fit enough and so it proved; he mounted a big run from the 600m and looked a real chance with 200m to go, then peaked. The Freedman's have an ideal property down on the Mornington Peninsula for getting a horse fit off the racetrack, plus they had always signalled their intention to go straight from Caulfield into the Cup, so I wasn't concerned when he didn't run again.

I was also taken with a replay of one of his German wins where he stormed home over the last 200m of a 2400m race, showing rare speed for European stayer. Then when I saw he had only finished  five lengths from the authoritative Arc winner Danedream in another of his German runs, I couldn't leave him out. Finally and while it wasn't a deal breaker, but his rider Corey Brown has a good record in the Cup, and seem to gets stayers to relax well, and I could see him spending little petrol on the paint from his draw.

Americain: In hindsight the weight probably beats him, although Mosse believes it was the firm track. Still, if he had been closer to them at the turn I still think he may have won. But we will never know.

The Beaten Brigade: Manighar ran slightly better than I thought he would. As a rule horses don't improve between five and six years to win the Cup now and he had his chances last year. The blinkers that went on for the Cup probably sharpened him up sufficiently to run fifth instead of seventh/eighth.

I had Fox Hunt in my multiples but maybe he just lacks the class and speed that you need to win now. He seemed to fit the profile of a Jardines Lookout type of horse, tough and always finding the line. Or maybe the Mark Johnston recalcitrance which I took for a smokescreen was in fact no mirage and he genuinely thought the race was too bigger step. I must go back and look at his form again, possibly I missed something.

If the track had been dry last year I still maintain Holberg would have gone close to winning, instead of running sixth. Godolphin are going to win this race shortly, however this years pair didn't excite me as much as Holberg who had a racing profile that suggested he was comfortable racing close to the pace and could quicken or slow without coming off the bridle.

Of Godolphin's duo, Lost In The Moment appealed more. He finished strongly at Goodwood in  a race that featured a number of his English rivals in the Cup. I only sighted a replay of one of Modun's six career starts and it was on the dirt and right handed. It was a reasonably competitive pattern race and he won it well enough, drawing away over the closing stages, but he did race a fraction boldly, which may only be down to his lack of experience. But I had little hesitation to relegate him when I read a report from Werribee that he looked overly bold in his work, which is contrary to the relaxed types I favour for these type of races.

Niwot: Franked the form that comes out of the Lexus now, with a strong performance to finish eighth. While his Lexus win was very comprehensive, I hadn't rated the field overly and when two moderates Macedonian and Raffaello filled the minor placings it tended to confirm my suspicions. He has an excellent Flemington record, including a two-mile win in the Andrew Ramsden, but it's been a long while since form from those sorts of races has bought any reward in the Cup - the St Leger winner Dolphin Jo finished fifth or thereabouts on a rain affected track three or so years ago. Niwot ran to form.

Glass Harmonium: Something told me that he may do a Jeune, being a big bold six-year-old stallion and all, so I had a few tickets on him just in case. Sure once he missed the kick his race was as good as over but he seemed to settle okay at the back of the field, but just didn't run on. Somehow I don't think that theory was ever going to work.

At First Sight: At first I wasn't overly concerned about him not wining the Bendigo Cup, as it was acknowledged he had missed vital work going into the Caulfield Cup and was still likely to be short of fitness. He went up to win at Bendigo then bottomed out. As a friend so rightly reminded me on Cup eve, you need absolutely everything to go right going into these type of races. Maybe he just isn't quite good enough? I would still like to see this horse with another Australian preparation.

Tullamore: Racing well in his leadups although I was concerned that he has always tended to race up on the bit and may not get 2 miles. A lot of Savabeel's have the same tendency and maybe the are sharp mile and a quarter to mile and a half horses. Also Brisbane Cup form hasn't translated into Cup form for many years.

The Cup is a fascinating race for punters. Chances are I suspect a number of my theories will go out the back door next year. Oh well, the analysis sure beats an investment property.