Karaka: predicting this years trends

I was looking at the Gold Coast averages today. They make interesting reading, probably slightly disturbing for some breeders, particularly those that have foals on the ground by Stratum, Exceed and Excel and Hussonet.

The Stratum reaction has been swift - we are not yet half way through the season. I recall an agent telling me in August last year how all the talk in Sydney and Melbourne was how impressive the Stratum youngsters were in their early education and gallops. How quickly things change in this game.

Even Redoutes, averaging just under $350k. This seasons foals are from a $330k odd service fee I think, so a nervous 12 months awaits breeders who used him that year.

Interested to see the Starcraft's selling well. He already has a nice two-year city winner along with two individual place getters from just four runners in Australia. I was impressed with a two-year-old by him at last weeks Paeroa trials. I wouldn't have picked him to sire early types.

So what are we in for at Karaka. Obviously the reaction to the Darci Brahmas will be very interesting. I wonder what the aussie buyers will make of them. Will they discount his progeny on account of Apache Cat out toughing him in the Guineas or will their love affair with sons of Danehill continue?

I'm interested in how the Savabeels sell. Things were looking up for the stallion after that stakeswiining two-year-old Australian filly won so well first up at 3 and that Rogerson filly took a competitive Breeders Stakes at Ruakaka but it's been hard work since. Things aren't helped when you lose your best colt in Warrentherooster. Tullamore and No Emotion finding there feet a bit earlier too would have helped.

Will buyers discount O'Reilly and Pin's on account of weight of numbers? I'm picking they will. It will be a good sale to pick up an O'Reilly filly for the broodmare paddock.

I haven't seen enough of the Fast n Famous and Perfectly Ready yearlings to be able to judge how they'll sell but I'm picking both will be popular but more so with the locals. When I saw PR run third in the Blue Diamond I thought him to be the most mature two-year-old I'd seen in the flesh so I'm interested in seeing how his stock have progressed from weanlings to yearlings. The son of More Than Ready Bennico seems to have been popular in Australia so I'm picking PR will be well received generally.

The first day of the Premier Sale could be a good time to strike as maybe a lot of buyers will want to sit back and evaluate the market. The Select catalogue seems stronger than recent years so it should be another interesting week.