Friday, January 29, 2010

Trentham 30 January

Fazza's my each way tip for the Cup.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Adaline: good buying

Adaline's win in the Group Two Royal Stakes may not have conclusively determined her ability to be competitive past 2000m but she showed her minute defeat by Katie Lee in the Eight Carat Classic was no flash in the pan and that Trevor McKee has once again found a quality horse cheaply at the sales.

Maybe it has something to do with it being the first time most three-year-old fillies have gone further than 1600m and connections therefore preferring a cautious approach but this years renewal of the Royal Stakes was once again plagued by a lack of pace making it an inconclusive guide to upcoming oaks races.

Inspecting Adaline for the first time in the parade ring at Ellerslie over Xmas it was hard to see how type could have been a factor in McKee only having to pay $28,000 for the Court of Jewels filly at the 2008 Karaka Select Sale.

A medium sized strongly girthed filly with good balance and an attractive feminine head she exhibits a number of the better characteristics of her very good female family.

The excellent but short lived publication Raceform 1988/89 described Adaline's grand dam the dual groupwinner Soleil Rouge as "short-coupled, big barelled poweful type; good shoulder..." . Another member of the family Silky Red Boxer, whose dam Soleil Etoile is a half sister to Soleil Rouge, was a very similar type.

Although it is back in the second generation, there is a good deal of black type in Adaline's female family with a number of half sisters to Soleil Rouge regularly represented by siblings in the Karaka Premier and Sydney Easter Sales. Soleil Rouge has herself been a good producer leaving a listed winner and her daughters beside Red Covet (dam of Adaline), have left Hong Kong Group One winner All Thrills Too and the group winning NZ two-year-old Crossyourheart.

The taproot mare responsible for the family is the english bred mare Polly Soleil who was imported to NZ in 1976 by Waikato breeder Ron Denby. There is little known about the mare before she came to these shores other than she was a half sister to Denby's good stallion Avon Valley.

Red Covet by St Covet looks to have shown connections some ability on the racetrack given that her six lifetime starts were all on Melbourne's city tracks and she was jumped to a stakes race at just her third start coming off a Flemington win at 1400m.

I have discussed St Covet briefly in an earlier posting but his record at stud before his death after just two seasons is quite astonishing, posting nearly 80% winners to runners and 15% stakes performers to runners. From I'm guessing around 40 live mares, St Covet has also managed to leave his mark as a broodmare stallion with Mimi Lebrock, the sensational filly Amelia's Dream and now Adaline.

Adaline has older half siblings by General Monash, Danehill Dancer and Fasliyev who amounted to very little on the racetrack while a year older full sister named Regally Red has been a useful performer on the Victorian provincial circuit with stake earnings of $50,000. A two-year-old unraced half brother by Bianconi called The Admiral Returns is Red Covet's latest foal of racing age.

Which leads us to Adaline's sire Court of Jewels and notwithstanding the luke warm start by Red Covet to her broodmare career, probably the significant factor in Trevor McKee acquiring her so cheaply.

Court of Jewels retired to stud in Victoria in 2004 with a record of 4 wins and 5 placings from 17 starts including a group three 1300m success in Adelaide and stakes placings at Rosehill, Caulfield and Doomben. A useful enough record but hardly one to get breeders rushing the farm gate down.

It gets better though on the pedigree side and significantly too, for Court of Jewels as a son of Danehill from a Sir Tristram grand daughter of Eight Carat is very closely related to leading stallions Commands and Danewin.

To Be Continued

Friday, January 22, 2010

Sound Reason: around for a while yet

I've always liked Sound Reason in a pedigree.

Like dad, his stock always tended to be strongly made, tough and durable racehorses. A strong wither, deep girth and a decent hindquarter were the most obvious physical traits of his best stock.

Maybe Sound Reason whose own racing career was characterised by consistency and durability inherited those attributes from his grandsire Hail To Reason who had eighteen starts as a two year old in the US.

He may have been dead seventeen years but Sound Reason's influence on the thoroughbred breeding and racing industry in these parts is still being felt as results today at Trentham show.

Vonusti who took the Telegraph is by Ustinov from the Sound Reason mare Reasonably while Group Two Wakefield Challenge Stakes runner up Cellarmaster, already a group three winner this year, is by Dubawi from the Sound Reason mare Oneology.

Although his record of six individual group one winners will never rank him as an outstanding sire, Sound Reason still carved out an enviable record as a sire from Ollie Goodwin's Riddlesworth Stud on the outskirts of Masterton, where he stood from 1980 until his death in 1993. The 16.2 and a half hand son of Bold Reason left everything from stakeswinning juveniles Validity and Eurudite; Oaks winners Candide, Sounds Like Fun, Sound Gold and Cologne; classy WFA performers Sound Horizon and Lacka Reason through to tough handicappers such as Tour Blade, Soundoration and the mercurial St James.

Remarkably though it's been as a broodmare sire where Sound Reason will be better remembered with Vonusti today becoming his twelfth individual group one winner.

Comparing his record as a broodmare sire with some other great influences from the same era makes interesting reading. Centaine has sixteen group one winners from his daughters and a few more to come yet, Pompeii Court, Star Way and Crested Wave 9 each and Grosvenor, steadily increasing his tally, on 7.

I don't know if such statistics exist but the sires of grand dams of group one winners would make fascinating reading. Sound Reason seems to have had a affinity down the years to figure significantly in this role particularly in conjunction with Centaine mares, many from Waikato Stud families, and not forgetting his daughter Sellou is the dam of the current NZ Broodmare of the Year Gussy Godiva.

Sadly there are no direct male line son's of Sound Reason to carry the line on and although the bred lost a wonderful opportunity to carry the female tail line on when St Covet, who had got off to such a promising start at stud, met with an early demise, maybe it's a mantle that the young group one winning Redoutes Choice stallion Nadeem can inherit, being a son of group one winning mare (It's) Candide.

While it's starting to get a little further back these days, the presence of Sound Reason blood in any pedigree is a big positive.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Karaka: predicting this years trends

I was looking at the Gold Coast averages today. They make interesting reading, probably slightly disturbing for some breeders, particularly those that have foals on the ground by Stratum, Exceed and Excel and Hussonet.

The Stratum reaction has been swift - we are not yet half way through the season. I recall an agent telling me in August last year how all the talk in Sydney and Melbourne was how impressive the Stratum youngsters were in their early education and gallops. How quickly things change in this game.

Even Redoutes, averaging just under $350k. This seasons foals are from a $330k odd service fee I think, so a nervous 12 months awaits breeders who used him that year.

Interested to see the Starcraft's selling well. He already has a nice two-year city winner along with two individual place getters from just four runners in Australia. I was impressed with a two-year-old by him at last weeks Paeroa trials. I wouldn't have picked him to sire early types.

So what are we in for at Karaka. Obviously the reaction to the Darci Brahmas will be very interesting. I wonder what the aussie buyers will make of them. Will they discount his progeny on account of Apache Cat out toughing him in the Guineas or will their love affair with sons of Danehill continue?

I'm interested in how the Savabeels sell. Things were looking up for the stallion after that stakeswiining two-year-old Australian filly won so well first up at 3 and that Rogerson filly took a competitive Breeders Stakes at Ruakaka but it's been hard work since. Things aren't helped when you lose your best colt in Warrentherooster. Tullamore and No Emotion finding there feet a bit earlier too would have helped.

Will buyers discount O'Reilly and Pin's on account of weight of numbers? I'm picking they will. It will be a good sale to pick up an O'Reilly filly for the broodmare paddock.

I haven't seen enough of the Fast n Famous and Perfectly Ready yearlings to be able to judge how they'll sell but I'm picking both will be popular but more so with the locals. When I saw PR run third in the Blue Diamond I thought him to be the most mature two-year-old I'd seen in the flesh so I'm interested in seeing how his stock have progressed from weanlings to yearlings. The son of More Than Ready Bennico seems to have been popular in Australia so I'm picking PR will be well received generally.

The first day of the Premier Sale could be a good time to strike as maybe a lot of buyers will want to sit back and evaluate the market. The Select catalogue seems stronger than recent years so it should be another interesting week.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

The Derby Path

Yesterday's three-year-old 1600m race at Ellerslie hasn't changed my thoughts on the Derby greatly.

Thé winner doesn't strike me as a Derby horse. Physically he's come on in leaps and bounds in the last two months but he tends to get on the bit and overrace a little to get a distance at present. A nice family this, one that I've recommended a friend consider buying into at Karaka - although No Fear and his half sister Dutch Strikers form won't have helped us much in terms of her value.

Any horse that fetches 1 million plus as a yearling is obviously no Danny De Vito but Maciano is still going to some animal in 12 months time. He's a chance in the Derby - he'll get the trip on his ear - but he's just a tad immature for mine. Take a look at him around the face and body. The only thing he doesn't have is acne.

Corporal Jones stays near the top of my list. Gee he's a well bodied horse. Not as long as Excellent but he still has a lot of physical resemblence to great stayer. He's relaxed bugger, just what you need to work with going through to a Derby. While he didn't necessarily show the lick he had in his two wins, I still liked the way he got home yesterday, largely under his own steam. Remember the miles would have been going into those legs the last month.

Keyora looked like his trainer after a month on the Gold Coast so I wouldn't read too much into his performance. In saying that I would have liked him to settle better yesterday.

Our Heir Apparent will have benefitted from the run too. He is pretty one-paced though and unless he can find some speed from somewhere I struggle to see him competing with Corporal Jones and Zarzuela. They had the blinkers on yesterday so they must have been expecting something.

I was taken with the run of Roger James filly. She may have finished closer with a clearer passage and didn't lose a lot in comparison with Corporal Jones up the straight. Roger does a great job with staying types at this time of year and isn't afraid to go the Derby way with fillies - Sixty Seconds ran second or third I recall - so I'll be keeping an eye on her progress.

No Emotion would have finished closer with a clearer run too. He's a nice type, in fact the best bodied Savabeel I've yet seen.

I had a peek at the two-year-olds too. Remember this race has been the superior guide to the Million and while I didn't necessarily see any Corsage runs this year, a couple will be competitive on the big night. The winner is strengthening up all the time and will continue to improve. Mark Walker's other runner, the Spartacus gelding, was also a nice run. They tend to go very hard in the Million and some winners have come from well back on the turn - think Vincent Mangano and last year, if Corsage had got one final gap, she probably would have got up.

The Bachelor Duke was another nice run, a pity about the ride. I had a look at his pedigree last night. It's that wonderful speed family of Clever Zoe etc that Waikato Stud have developed so well. I don't think he'll make the field for the Million but he should win a nice race somewhere.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

A Smokey

I've been going over a lot of race replays the last few days for an article I'm doing on the NZ Derby.

He's no Derby horse, actually I don't even think he's eligible, but I may have found a horse capable of winning his way out of maidens pretty quickly.

Dullingham is his name. At his most recent start, which was just his second career run, he ran midfield to Green Supreme at Ellerslie on 28 December.

You may laught at this but I just liked the way he got round the corner into the straight. He took it at speed and it's never easy to do, particularly for an inexperienced horse.

Once he got balanced into the straight he was running on again at the finish despite looking like he wanted to hang in a bit. He'seems to have a nice stride on him.

Paste him away.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

New Year's Day at Ellerslie

Track a good 2 and rail out 2.5 from Boxing Day

Race 2: F & F R90 1400. Tidy enough win by the Lohnro filly Tampiko fresh to the carnival coming off a R70 win at Tauranga where so showed good acceleration to beat the promising Shigeru. Looked a useful enough filly at three running 10 of 16 in the Eight Carat and was only having her 2nd run in a new campaign whereas some of the others had done some racing including She Rules who ran up to win but died on her run. She Rules has been up since the autumn and may have had enough. The Lohnro stock seem to be improving with age which is a good sign for the stallions career. Gee Scarlet Vanhara is another fine e.g of the good quality of mare Van Nistelrooy can leave. She is racing now like she s looking for 2000m.

Race 3: Eclipse Stakes 1200m. . Cellarmaster has his dad's great head and still has some growing to do so given what he's doing at two he should make a lovely three-year-old. Banchee is so much like her half sister in demeanour and type. In fact she maybe even more relaxed. While the two Walker runners by General Nediym don't look to me to have the scope to go on beyond this season I wouldn't discount them in the Karaka Million. Do the C.D babies have the wood on their Northern counterparts ? While I'm not convinced about the form from this race, Cellarmaster and Banchee are clearly 2 to follow and I would be checking to see what odds I could get for Banchee come Karaka Million time. Condescender - 4th - is getting better with experience but the fact that he was coming off a soft third on Boxing Day, gives more me reason to treat the form from this race wearily.

Race 4: R70 1600. Jena The Guru's win further franks the form from Corporal Jones win here at the twilight meeting; Tahana Strike has also since won. Monzieur Bond may have felt the ground. Apparently he is not the soundest of animals and was bandaged in front. He looked to run in slightly in the home straight. I thought the blinkers would work the oracle for So Pristine but she still seemed reluctant to strect out in traffic. She strikes me as one of those Zabeel's that needs space from other horses to let down so I have not put a line through her yet.

Race 5: Dunstan Stayers Final 2200. Drawing wide over 2200m is not the death sentence that it is at 2100 or certainly 2000m, at Ellerslie and Seaflyte had the form in R80 and 90 grades. He's one of those horses who races like he looks - rangy and tough, probably the Grosvenor factor. Heza Karma Karzi got found out by the strong tempo I suspect. Montetra was a great ride and needs moisture. The winner and runner up are clearly the two to follow but Montgomery is a lightly raced type worth keeping an eye on.

Race 6: Royal Stakes 2000m. A slow pace typical often of this race made it difficult for the staying type of fillies. Veronica Franco simply couldn't sprint with the other two. I thought Via Vento was in the same boat and by Cape Cross from a Sadlers Wells mare and a big type she has some scope and could be competitive at the Oaks distances. Is there a more successful purchaser of cheap horses than Trevor McKee? She's a nice cut of a filly too, typical of the family, not too long but with a good depth girth. First season sire Court of Jewels must have put a lot of people off but he was a handy Danehill sprinter from a Sir Tristram daughter of Eight Carat. La Collina is another attractive type of filly by Van Nisttlerooy. A bit finer than some of the Van fillies, her mother by O'Reilly - who is not the most attractive of mares herself - maybe responsible for passing on that lighter bone. Overall a race that panned out as most suspected, a slow tempo suited the class fillies with the stakes form at the shorter trips and the fillies stepping up from maidens and R70 could not use their staying potential to their advantage.

Race 7: Rich Hill Mile. Watch this replay more than once. A lot of form will come from it. I had been waiting for La Etoile to strike a firm track at a mile. The wide draw almost put me off but I'm glad I stuck with her. Sure she was always going to need luck but there was enough pace in the race. Huge run from Irish Opera who seems to save his best races for Ellerslie and he paraded probably superior to anything else on the whole card. Capacia, Dancing Jess and Casabella Lane were other particularly good runs but there were others. Even Santangelo went a nice race although her preliminary was poor and I didn't think she looked as well as she did in Christchurch. Maybe she s an autumn mare.

Race 8: Railway. Race was gifted to A Gold Trail which must rub salt into the wounds of the conections of Atapi. He's quite a typical Hussonet, strong and carries a lot of condition, although he maybe more short coupled than some of his stock. John Sargent had done a great job with Kiloton and his preliminary was most impressive. Snipza Gold got home nicely and looks a horse to follow at Trentham. I was a little surprised at the tactic s of Richard Beymer to be ridden off the speed as I couldn't see he had the finishing speed to win the race. Beautiful Girl had every chance and probably just lacked the class. She's a nice strong mare particularly through the girth and hindquarters. It's good to see that Round the World family throw up another nice horse because it has been quiet for quite some time.

Race 9: City of Auckland Cup. Another bouquet to John Sargent for getting Red Ruler back into winning form. I still recall that day he won the Championship Stakes at Ellerslie in the summer of his 3 year-old-year. The turn of foot he showed that day marked him down as a rare thoroughbred and while he still has to recapture quite that form it was good to see him back in the winners stall. Sterling Prince paraded fresh and raced accordingly. That's the tightrope trainers walk with horses I guess. He'd come back from Oz after 3 hard runs on successive weekends and all good horse husbandry tells you to freshen the horse up. The CD form held up in this race again with Fazza and Manonamission running 2/3. In a compressed handicap none of the lightweights were able to make the class jump which was compounded by the hard track and genuine pace. Calatrava gave me the impression in the parade ring that she did not back up from Boxing Day where shed looked magnificent. Fazza is an interesting type. He's almost a throwback I imagine to the stayers of the 50's and 60's, rangy, tough, plain looking and a tad ribby. Jeff Lynds horses often don't carry a lot of condition but it doesn't seem to do them any harm. I love the way Fazza just drops the bit in his races and switches off. He may have been more at home if the Wellington Cup was still at 3200 so I'm not sure the $8 is value at Tretham but I think he is the horse to start looking at for a big race up here on the 10 March.

Race 10: Spec Conditions Maiden 1400m. A comfortable win for a horse I've always liked(take a look at my Summer Six posting back a couple). She's lightened off a little so Richard Collet may have to take things easy with her this season but he's got great patience and is her perfect mentor. From that wonderful Georgetti family, the second horse Palatine will end up a nice horse also. He's a good type of Shinko King, not as long as some but typically still a bit weak. He went up as if he'd win at the 200m but just died on his run. Again he's another in just the right yard to let him find his potential. Not sure what to make of Affirmation. His coat looked a little dull although it's never easy to tell with greys. Being a stallion I wonder if he switched off when caught on the inside of horses. I've taken notes.

Probably now the best day for the racing pursit on our calendar.