Kelt Observations

I walked the track about 11am on Friday morning. The rail was back in it's true position after been out 4m for Windsor Park day and 2m on the first day.

The difference in the quality of going between the inside say about 2 horsewidths and that next section of track was like night and day.

As a consequence if you were making your runs further out than 2 horse widths on Kelt day you were severely disadvantaged.

There were two races on the Kelt card both with different end results which supported this theory. They were the Guineas and the last.

In the Guineas the went like cut cats up front after the Hombre and others drawn wide were keen to find the rail. Sure the runs of Keyora and St Germaine were impressive coming down the outside in the worst part of the track but they didn't distance the leading pack when conceivably they should have.

I wouldn't drop The Hombre on that run. Apparently John Barry had felt he hadn't come through his middle day run as well as he could. He sweated up markedly on the day, the horse that is not John, which sometimes indicates all is not 100%. I will be interested to see if they give him a break now.

The two up front went quickly in the last too but there wasn't quite the pressure of the Guineas and the jockeys rated Mamasan and Pinnafero expertly. They kicked off the corner and the race was over.

This rail bias, rather than on pace bias has played a relevant part now on two out of the last four Kelt days and on both occasions - Legs in 2006 the other - it has come on the back of a wet second day.

Logic says you reserve the best ground for your feature day but maybe it's worth looking at racing in the true position on the first day, before going out 4m on the second day. That way the rail won't be true virgin turf on Kelt day.

It may encourage more of the serious punting fraternity to open their wallets on the final day. I note turnover on Kelt day was down as much as 19% which is probably mostly to do with the times but worth considering all the same.

Ánd I won't be dropping Thundermore on his Guineas run. He'd gone on tremendously physically from his first day win and I'm a sucker for the good looks. I just wished when I stood in the tote que that I had reminded myself he had only two lifetime starts. The Guineas was a pressure cooker race. Maybe it's more symptomatic with colts but inexperienced horses can often switch off when they get crowded. Like Denman he'll keep.