Just like any sport, horse racing has it's share of anti climaxes.
It would be great but there are not Cox Plate moments like Saturday every week.
I got the impression a lot of fans thought the Caulfield Guineas - do you remember that race - was a bit of a let down.
Before the race the media and other industry players, some respected enough to make lofty assessments , were in awe of the Australian three-year-old crop. Some were calling it equal to the class of 99 or even more dramatically, on par with Ochy and co from 96.
And then thanks to an unhearlded colt in Starspangledbanner and a group of jockeys who pannicked, more reputations came crashing down in one minute and 36 seconds than in the Roosters pre season.
But three weeks can be a long time in horse racing and now suddenly there is a little redemption for the crop of 2009.
So You Think has grabbed Denman's mantle and some with his dramatic Cox Plate victory and Manhatten Rain ran right up to Gai's assessment of him with his tough second to Cumming's latest star.
It doesn't stop there; even the often maligned VRC Derby looks like shaping up as one of the more even contests in many years. Shamoline Warrior who looked to have the race at his mercy a fortnight ago may still be able to salvage Mark Kavanagh's spring but he will have a battle on his hands with the likes of the rangy Hanks, the professional Extra Zero and the kiwi pair of Monaco Consul and Our Heir Apparent.
History will show that 2009 was a pretty good vintage.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Bachelor Duke: Maybe It's The Heir Down Under?
I've never really figured out why some stallions do well in the NH but are not nearly as dominant down under or vice versa. The most obvious recent example is Gallileo.
There was a theory put forward going back before Montjeu and Scenic 'took off ' that the Sadlers Wells line wouldn't succeed in the SH because the breeds stock were too light boned to cope with the firmer tracks and were more suited to the softer European going.
I'm sure differences between racing environments do dictate performance just as you'd be odds on to win a debate arguing that Langfuhr, Thunder Gulch and Distorted Humour failed down under because their stock showed a strong pre disposition to the dirt tracks that we don't have. But turn it around and why has More Than Ready, predominantly a sire of dirt performers
in the USA, been so much more successful in Australia.
In Keyora, Single Currency and Prince of Wales, the second-season sire has three distinct chances for the 2000 Guineas and the Levin Classic both at group one level. That's a pretty useful statistic made even more significant when you consider that's from 51 live foals in his first SH season.
Don't be put off by the 40 to 1 winning dividend and that some form analysts have rated this years Hawkes Bay Guineas a 'swoopers' race following the fast early sectionals. Keyora beat a Guineas field with some depth and had to come down the outside section of track which was significantly inferior in condition to the inside section on Kelt day.
The unbeaten Single Currency may only have won a maiden at Taupo and a midweek R70 at Hastings but it was the ease of both victories which left the impression that his future lies in a much stronger grade.
Some may have thought Prince of Wales a tad over-rated after he could only manage third as favourite in his final juvenile assignment the Listed Castletown Stakes at Foxton back in June.
On closer examination the Paul Moroney trained colt was probably entitled to be cut a little slack.
While Prince of Wales had won his previous start on a slow track at Tauranga, young horses often get away with such performances against their own age group on tracks they don't prefer and a slow surface at Foxton has beeen the undoing of many a more highly rated horse. Add to that his running on a left handed track for the first time and getting trapped three wide for a good part of the race and the good looking colt still deserved to go to his winter quarters as one of the more likely candidate's for group honours at three - oh and don't forget Aspinal, who finished behind him in the Castletown has since run third in the Hawkes Bay Guineas.
His fillies are a bit thinner on the ground so far this season but Bewitch who was twice stakes placed at two and Obsession who also looked a likely sort are both down to resume shortly.
Before you start thinking that Bachelor Duke is only a sire of males, think again because his best runner to date in the NH is the filly Luminous Eyes, a group three winner at two and group three placed this term.
There was a theory put forward going back before Montjeu and Scenic 'took off ' that the Sadlers Wells line wouldn't succeed in the SH because the breeds stock were too light boned to cope with the firmer tracks and were more suited to the softer European going.
I'm sure differences between racing environments do dictate performance just as you'd be odds on to win a debate arguing that Langfuhr, Thunder Gulch and Distorted Humour failed down under because their stock showed a strong pre disposition to the dirt tracks that we don't have. But turn it around and why has More Than Ready, predominantly a sire of dirt performers
in the USA, been so much more successful in Australia.
The Oaks Stud's Bachelor Duke could be about to become the newest member of stallion's suffering from location based performance anxiety club.
In the NH Bachelor Duke's performance is decidedly average. After a relatively promising start with his two-year-olds, including a group three winner, his three-year-olds have failed to live up to that early promise.
It's early days for the shuttle stallion down under but the signs look a lot more encouraging.In Keyora, Single Currency and Prince of Wales, the second-season sire has three distinct chances for the 2000 Guineas and the Levin Classic both at group one level. That's a pretty useful statistic made even more significant when you consider that's from 51 live foals in his first SH season.
Don't be put off by the 40 to 1 winning dividend and that some form analysts have rated this years Hawkes Bay Guineas a 'swoopers' race following the fast early sectionals. Keyora beat a Guineas field with some depth and had to come down the outside section of track which was significantly inferior in condition to the inside section on Kelt day.
The unbeaten Single Currency may only have won a maiden at Taupo and a midweek R70 at Hastings but it was the ease of both victories which left the impression that his future lies in a much stronger grade.
Some may have thought Prince of Wales a tad over-rated after he could only manage third as favourite in his final juvenile assignment the Listed Castletown Stakes at Foxton back in June.
On closer examination the Paul Moroney trained colt was probably entitled to be cut a little slack.
While Prince of Wales had won his previous start on a slow track at Tauranga, young horses often get away with such performances against their own age group on tracks they don't prefer and a slow surface at Foxton has beeen the undoing of many a more highly rated horse. Add to that his running on a left handed track for the first time and getting trapped three wide for a good part of the race and the good looking colt still deserved to go to his winter quarters as one of the more likely candidate's for group honours at three - oh and don't forget Aspinal, who finished behind him in the Castletown has since run third in the Hawkes Bay Guineas.
His fillies are a bit thinner on the ground so far this season but Bewitch who was twice stakes placed at two and Obsession who also looked a likely sort are both down to resume shortly.
Before you start thinking that Bachelor Duke is only a sire of males, think again because his best runner to date in the NH is the filly Luminous Eyes, a group three winner at two and group three placed this term.
Horse breeders have longer memories than Laurie Mains and the deeds - or lack of more to the point - of Miswaki's most celebrated sire sons in this country in the form of Le Belvedere and Rossini would have made Bachelor Duke's early promotion difficult despite his resume containing success in the Group One Irish 2000 Guineas.
The fact that he was from a Seattle Slew mare would have made The Oaks Marketing and Nominations manager's job even more difficult - but he s got broad shoulders - for despite 'Slews' legendary status as a sire of sires in the USA, the mostly dirt propagator has had much less success outside his home land.
As types the Bachelor Duke's tend to be medium sized with attractive heads and well balanced athletic bodies. It's far from a criticism such is their quality in front, but often they are better from the wither forward than behind the saddle.
Already the influence of the Oak's GM Rick Williams has come through in the pedigree's of Bachelor Duke's better runners. Williams who had great success when he presided over Waikato Stud with targeted line breeding to influential matrons, particularly with their Pompeii Court, seems to have cottoned onto the genetic horse power of duplicating the taproot mare Special through her full sister Lisadell - the great grand dam of Bachelor Duke - with significant impact.
In the sorts of results that make all line breeding theorists run to the top of the nearest hill, Prince of Wales, Obsession and Keyora all feature the duplication.
But theories aside at the end of the day it probably pays to not get too over analytical about the variation of performance between hemispheres and put it down to just another quirk of horse racing and breeding that keeps us enthusiast's on our toes and driven to breed the next champion.
And for the longterm good of our industry in particular it's refreshing to have unearthed a mould breaking bloodline for incorporation into a genetic pool saturated with so much close-up Northern Dancer, Danzig and Danehill blood.
Arise the Duke.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Kelt Observations
I walked the track about 11am on Friday morning. The rail was back in it's true position after been out 4m for Windsor Park day and 2m on the first day.
The difference in the quality of going between the inside say about 2 horsewidths and that next section of track was like night and day.
As a consequence if you were making your runs further out than 2 horse widths on Kelt day you were severely disadvantaged.
There were two races on the Kelt card both with different end results which supported this theory. They were the Guineas and the last.
In the Guineas the went like cut cats up front after the Hombre and others drawn wide were keen to find the rail. Sure the runs of Keyora and St Germaine were impressive coming down the outside in the worst part of the track but they didn't distance the leading pack when conceivably they should have.
I wouldn't drop The Hombre on that run. Apparently John Barry had felt he hadn't come through his middle day run as well as he could. He sweated up markedly on the day, the horse that is not John, which sometimes indicates all is not 100%. I will be interested to see if they give him a break now.
The two up front went quickly in the last too but there wasn't quite the pressure of the Guineas and the jockeys rated Mamasan and Pinnafero expertly. They kicked off the corner and the race was over.
This rail bias, rather than on pace bias has played a relevant part now on two out of the last four Kelt days and on both occasions - Legs in 2006 the other - it has come on the back of a wet second day.
Logic says you reserve the best ground for your feature day but maybe it's worth looking at racing in the true position on the first day, before going out 4m on the second day. That way the rail won't be true virgin turf on Kelt day.
It may encourage more of the serious punting fraternity to open their wallets on the final day. I note turnover on Kelt day was down as much as 19% which is probably mostly to do with the times but worth considering all the same.
Ánd I won't be dropping Thundermore on his Guineas run. He'd gone on tremendously physically from his first day win and I'm a sucker for the good looks. I just wished when I stood in the tote que that I had reminded myself he had only two lifetime starts. The Guineas was a pressure cooker race. Maybe it's more symptomatic with colts but inexperienced horses can often switch off when they get crowded. Like Denman he'll keep.
The difference in the quality of going between the inside say about 2 horsewidths and that next section of track was like night and day.
As a consequence if you were making your runs further out than 2 horse widths on Kelt day you were severely disadvantaged.
There were two races on the Kelt card both with different end results which supported this theory. They were the Guineas and the last.
In the Guineas the went like cut cats up front after the Hombre and others drawn wide were keen to find the rail. Sure the runs of Keyora and St Germaine were impressive coming down the outside in the worst part of the track but they didn't distance the leading pack when conceivably they should have.
I wouldn't drop The Hombre on that run. Apparently John Barry had felt he hadn't come through his middle day run as well as he could. He sweated up markedly on the day, the horse that is not John, which sometimes indicates all is not 100%. I will be interested to see if they give him a break now.
The two up front went quickly in the last too but there wasn't quite the pressure of the Guineas and the jockeys rated Mamasan and Pinnafero expertly. They kicked off the corner and the race was over.
This rail bias, rather than on pace bias has played a relevant part now on two out of the last four Kelt days and on both occasions - Legs in 2006 the other - it has come on the back of a wet second day.
Logic says you reserve the best ground for your feature day but maybe it's worth looking at racing in the true position on the first day, before going out 4m on the second day. That way the rail won't be true virgin turf on Kelt day.
It may encourage more of the serious punting fraternity to open their wallets on the final day. I note turnover on Kelt day was down as much as 19% which is probably mostly to do with the times but worth considering all the same.
Ánd I won't be dropping Thundermore on his Guineas run. He'd gone on tremendously physically from his first day win and I'm a sucker for the good looks. I just wished when I stood in the tote que that I had reminded myself he had only two lifetime starts. The Guineas was a pressure cooker race. Maybe it's more symptomatic with colts but inexperienced horses can often switch off when they get crowded. Like Denman he'll keep.
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