Some Light On The Caulfield Cup

So the Godolphin and Cumani charges have landed in Melbourne. I can hear the cynics already.

I shouldn't be amongst them - Jardines Lookout helped me to a decent share of a big Melbourne Cup trifecta one year.

Sure the list of casualties is long but when the NH visitors turn up with their A game, they are a multiple players delight. Taufan's Melody the winner of the demolition derby which doubled as the 98 Caulfield Cup was friendless down under at 66/1 and last years winner on the Heath, All The Good, returned almost 50/1.

Before you run to your computers to study race records, here's a tip - if these sorts of prices didn't already tell you - the Vinnie Roe's and Vintage Crop's aside, there's little in the way of a form pattern to the performances of the NH horses downunder.

But as with most things, try something enough times and those with the perseverance and resources will eventually find a formula that works as best it can opposed by the nuances that are staying handicaps in a different timezone and climate.

It's a formula that is starting to pass the experiment stage and two key ingredients are the Godolphin and Cumani stables.

So am I in the camp of the foreigners? I have been impressed with what I've seen of Kirklees's races. He has good tactical speed enabling him to race on the pace, where he settles well, and kick for home. It''s difficult to win Caulfield Cups with 56kgs but the other fundamentals are there for him to be in the first three.

Cima De Triomphe looked to me to be a different kettle of fish. He seems to switch on and off and looks to need to be held up. I just got the impression - rightly or wrongly - that he may not be the toughest. Who am I to question Luca Cumani and Damien Oliver but I'm going to lay him in this race.

I''ve liked Light Vision for a while now. He's just that slow maturing, patiently handled staying horse who gets in these type of races with little or no fuss and weight. And a particularly good attribute he has for Caulfield is his ability to race on the pace. Although initially disappointed with his wide barrier there is not a great deal of speed in the race and he should be able to possie up in the first 4 or 5 by the 1800m. I feel he's a similar type of horse to the likes of Duoro Valley and Barbaricus who have placed in this race at long odds the last two years.

My other banker today is Roman Emperor trained by the master whose eyelashes can be seen from outer space. 'Bart has given him a slow build up and the last two starts he has looked to come into the race but just lacked a finishing kick. The blinkers go on today for the first time since his AJC Derby triumph and that should be the touch that can see him sprint more keenly off what should be a handy in running spot from barrier 4.

Horses that run well in this race tend to be either the class horses dropping back in weight from WFA racing who can position reasonably handy to the pace, the less classier handicappers which I described above or the real improving types who have literally jumped through the briddle during the spring and beaten the handicapper. In the later category horses like Ethereal and Railings come to mind from recent times. Further back and you come across the likes of Arctic Scent.

Viewed and more significantly Predatory Pricer because of the greater weight drop, fit into the first category. Viewed was a touch unlucky in this contest last year and I don't believe the weight rise this year needs to be a consideration - he s good enough and physically more mature enough to cope. It's his pattern of racing to get back and a lot of the time - not all the time - those horses don't win this race. He's good enough to be in the money though.

I predict Predatory Pricer will be ridden agressively to get handy this afternoon. I see there is likely to be a dead at best track which won't help him. If he had drawn better and the Melbourne weather was more settled he would have been clearly my top selection.

Allez Wonder fits into the final category and can resurrect the very good record 4 year-old mares had in this race in the 90s and early this century.

Although asked to carry 1.5kgs more than Allez Wonder, another four-year-old mare the kiwi Daffodil is in form and her final 100m of the Kelt was strong. She has shown she can travel and the rain around Melbourne is going to help her.

The best of the longer priced runners I feel is Red Lord who carries no weight and should be ridden more patiently today than he has recently.

In summary I feel Roman Emperor and Light Vision can be in the money at good odds and you could look to take them in multiples around Kirklees,Predatory Pricer, Daffodil and Allez Wonder, with Viewed, Master O'Reilly and Red Lord to run third.

It's traditionally a difficult race for punters and this years contest is no different with an $8.50 favourite.

Ratings

I see Timeform earlier this week gave See The Stars a provisional rating of 140 stating " He is a once in a lifetime horse".

Timeforms top ratings over the years they ve existed, which is about 50 I think, are;


Brigader Gerard 144

Mill Reef 141

Sea The Stars 140

Dubai Millennium 140

Dancing Brave 140

Shergar 140


I was in the UK in 2002 and saw Rock of Gibralter who I think ended with a Timeform rating of "only" 135. I still consider him the best horse I ve seen in the flesh. How good must the Brigader or little Mill Reef have been.

Despite the best analysis, ratings are still subjective and given the variables, particularly track conditions, it must be difficult to line up horses from generation to generation, let alone from race to race.

Still over the years Timeform have developed a reputation for their objectivity and accuracy.

I ve seen a couple of new rating systems spring up over the last year or two which attempt to take a more global look at performance.

It would be an extremely useful tool for breeders and bloodstock buyers if a thoroughly global ratings system existed. Of course it would be too much to ask that it was as comprehensive a job as Timeform do of the UK form but even if it concentrated on stakes racing it would be decidely beneficial.

It would need to be less clynical than the NZ Free Handicap which I've often struggled with. Can someone explain to me how a horse who wins a four horse Listed two-year-old race on a wet track at Wingatui can be rated above a place getter in a competitive Matamata Breeders Stakes? Believe me it happens.

The English seem to do impartiality well - remember Chamberlain - so my vote would go to Timeform to manage a global system.

Just looking at those ratings, what a year 1971 must have been in the UK for racing fans.

The three year old crop featured Brigader Gerrad, Mill Reef, My Swallow ( who rated 138 I recall) and the french colt Caro.

Not too many would argue Timeform got those ratings right.

Speaking of three-year-old crops, this seasons in NZ is shaping up nicely. The HB Guineas could be the highlight of Kelt Day.

But how good is the Australian crop? I wondered if I d see a better vintage than the 99/00 season which contained the likes of Redoutes Choice, Testa Rosa, Commands, Align, Pins and Diatribe.

Denman, Trusting, More Than Great, Black Caviar, Shoot Out, Manhatten Rain and So You Think are a pretty good starting point, but time will tell. It maybe a good opportunity for a pro active studmaster to strike.

Pity Real Saga was retired. I wonder how Timeform would assess Denman?