Ellerslie Twilight

If we get a night like tonight tomorrow, Ellerslie will go off.

The quaddie looks gettable, but take note that the rail is out 12.5m.

Zambezi looks a good way to start the night.

Here's my thoughts on the quaddie.

First Leg Race 5: Our Dream Catcher and Blonde Bombshell bring the best formlines and are must includes. Glendoveer who was second at her only start wanted to lay out at Te Rapa and should appreciate going the opposite way round tomorrow. November Rain is a nice filly but gets back and could struggle to make ground with the rail out. You should be ok with 1, 2 and 4.

2nd Leg Race 6: The aristocratic Maciano was running on nicely enough for third on debut and the first two home are classy sorts who would win this. He has drawn well and should get a soft run so is a must include. Mangaroa Molly is a promising type who has been crying out for 1600m but gets back. Neptune could get away with a soft lead and be hard to run down. The hardest leg if Maciano is not what we all hope he is. 4, 8, 9, and 12.

3rd Leg Race 7: You can get away with only two here, Nadege and Gallant. Nadege has struck me as a Cups horse and 1600m is ideal at this stage of her preparation. She goes up 3kgs on her last start but is a big strong mare who should cope. Gallant made ground strongly from off the pace last start and should run handier from the draw. Like Nadege he's always looked like a horse capable of reaching a much higher mark. 5 and 11.

4th Leg Race 8: So Pristine gets in well here for a two win horse and has the draw to sit handy. Tanha Strike may have won his only start at Dargaville but he ran time and had looked smart at the trials previously. He also has drawn well and should be hard to run down. 5 and 7 in the last leg.

Should be an excellent nights racing

My Summer Six

I always try and slip out to Avondale for their Guineas. It's no longer the great Derby guide but it s still capable of throwing up a good horse.

On paper this year's field looked a bit down in quality, certainly compared to last year, and I thought the race panned out that way. Only four lengths covered the field across the line, bar one horse.

I would be following Celtic Fantasy out of the race. I like his style of racing; he goes forward, relaxes and scraps. It would be interesting to see him get some cover in a race; he maybe able to really let down. Remember he's doing this after just three starts. There's upside with this guy and he's bred and races like he'll get over more ground.

Celtic Fantasy is an interesting horse on type. I'd expected to see either a big tall Giant's Causeway or some resemblence to Pentire Celbre his damsire, in other words lightly boned. Instead he looks to have thrown to the Mill Reef line through his grand dams sire Doyuon. He's generously barelled and proportioned through the shoulder, of medium size and quite athletic.

He didn't get hot in the yard but he had two handlers with him, just more of an indication he's very much learning his trade.

Here's six horses worth following over the summer.

Wealth Princess: A mark of a good horse is an ability to win regardless of race pattern, and that's something this four-year-old mare has already exhibited in her unbeaten three-start career. Blessed with rare aceleration she is able to get out of tight spots as she showed with her win at Te Rapa on Labour Monday. The 41's quote for the Railway is way overs.

Attackum: Running on nicely freshup behind Richard Breymer at Counties. Still lacking some ringcraft but very gifted sprinter as his domestic efforts last autumn, showed running fast sectionals and carrying weight. Subsequently ventured to Australia where his best performance was a third behind rising star Battlefield. Adds intrigue to an even lot of sprinters set to tackle the Railway and Telegraph.

Our Heir Apparent: Never a hope in the VRC Derby after getting back in a slowly run contest. By Zabeel there's good reason to believe he'll be further improved this preparation. Doesn't have the tactical speed of Monaco Consul but if it's a genuinely run NZ Derby he's a legitimate danger to the likely favourite.

Leica Scotch: I must confess to just having a "gut feel"about this Zabeel entire. First up after a year away he ran home strongly for second over 1400m to promising mare Dasoudi. Should improve with the run and more distance but don't get too carried away second up as I'm picking the fresh up run will have taken the sharpness from his legs. Will probably target a race like the Dunstan Final but I pick we can pour rather a tall one after a race such as the Hawkes Bay Cup.

O'Cartier: Showed at the recent Cup Carnival that he had recaptured the form he displayed up north last summer when fourth in a very strong Couplands Mile then backing up to win over 1400m in fast time on Cup day with 58.5kgs. Not a pretty horse particularly when at full gallop but blessed with plenty of heart and class. Remember he gave Wall Street 4.5kgs in the Couplands.

November Rain: This seasons three year-old fillies crop looks to have depth and although currently a maiden this filly won't be out of her depth aginst the better types once the distances get past 1600m. Her sire Stravinsky while better known for his sprinter/milers has left Oaks winners such as Serenade Rose who like November Rain features the stamina influence Sadlers Wells in her female remove.

You ve got to love summer.

Ellerslie Observations 28 November 2009

Ventured out. Amazing sometimes what you find when you least expect it..

There was a good vibe on course which came about on the back of the day been a NZ Racing Xmas at the Races initiative. An encouraging start for the concept.

The rail out 10m gave on pace horses a distinct advantage. Unlike Wanganui the club dodged a bullet with ominous dark clouds all afternoon, which in a stroke of fortune, only displayed their venom as the last race left the gates.

You'll have read about the performances of Desoudi and Run Like Al so I'll leave them alone. Here are some others that caught my eye.

Leica Scotch: An interesting prospect this guy. 1400m fresh up for a year, no trial or blinkers; not exactly characteristics to inspire you to back a Zabeel are they?

He maybe small in stature but he makes up for it. His eye reeks of courage and when he walks, his hindquarters literally touch his ears. Reminds me on type of Hades and Vengeance of Rain.

Got home nicely for second to Desoudi. I don't know what Roger James has in mind but it wouldn't surprise me if he went via the Dunstan to something later on like the HB Cup.

Showcause: Probably still 12 months away physically. Never a winning hope on Saturday but as is his pattern, his best work was his last 100m. Strikes me as a genuine two miler who given his liking for Ellerslie could end up back here in 15 months for an important assignment.

Martial Art: When the moneys goes on a horse from a big stable like it did on this guy on Saturday, it's usually not miss directed.

Was going to win the moment he entered the parade ring. A strongly made individual he looked months ahead of the rest on maturity and he knew it. I've been looking for an NZ Derby horse to follow through to the race and I think I've found him.

Charlotte Russe: More attractive than a lot of Red Ransoms, particularly around the head, which she probably gets from her grand dam who could leave a stunning yearling.

Winding into the race when denied racing room on at least two occasions in the straight, this four-year-old mare will end up a live chance in a good staying handicap before seasons end.

He's Glovin It: I got caught talking to someone and missed seeing him in the yard but looked a lovely big scopey type in his preliminary. Actually could see some resemblance to the Towkay-Millie Munroe filly now racing as The Blonde Bombshell, who hails from the same family. Nice family this and moving again after a hiatius.

I like staying horses lwho get home under their steam and hit the line, and this guys has some of these traits.

I left in the pouring rain thinking one of these horses is going to win a big race, one day, somewhere. Maybe the next month or 6 weeks will tell me which one. It could well be the little guy with small horses syndrome.

Van Nistelrooy: Finding His Mark

Synchronicity is pretty neat.

I was doing a bit of thinking this week about the impact here of Van Nistelrooy, fuelled of course by his daughters 'almost' group 2 double at Pukekohe last weekend.

You know how sometimes you see a horse for the first time and it stops you in your tracks? I found one of those today, a filly, hiding beneath the trees in the back parade ring at Ellerslie before the sixth, a maiden race over 1400m.

This girl didn't need a spray tan or cosmetic surgery; a lovely rich chestnut, she had the mid section of a Swedish Pilate's instructor; the shoulder of an Olympic butterfly swimmer, and floated - even at a walk, like an angel.

A rye smile came over me when I opened my race book to find she was a filly by Van Nistelrooy. I had to come home and write something.

I don't recall a hue and cry from breeders when Van Nistelrooy stopped shuttling to NZ after the 2006 season.

Sure there was some promising types around but for a two-year-old group two winning son of Storm Cat, breeders had expected, rightly or wrongly , fast early maturing horses. Pit Lane, from the Marauding mare Disco Girl, won three successive races at 2 in Victoria, and then ran midfield in the Hustlers's Caulfield Guineas, but on the whole you'd have been kind saying it was a 'promising' start.

After his daughter Boundless triumphed at long odds in the 2008 New Zealand Oaks, I like many I suspect thought that here was simply another Philco or Regal Empress.

Okay her unlucky second in the AJC Oaks two months later showed that Boundless was actually a high class staying filly. Still, it was very much a one swallow team at that stage.

Unfortunately Boundless couldn't carry on the VN momentum last season for after a close fourth in the Kelt on an interrupted preparation, she failed to fire in Australia and went to the paddock.

But almost on cue the last twelve months has seen the emergence of some high class female sprinter/miler types by the stallion headed by Telegraph place getter Ruud Van Slaats, Anniversary Handicap winner Striker and the stakeswinning Bella Renza.

And another mare who looks capable of joining those stakeswinning ranks is the lightly tried Scarlett Vanhara. A fast finishing and slightly unlucky third in the Breeders Stakes at Pukekohe, the beautifully athletic four-year old, expertly handled by trainer Ross Elliot, should be very competitive in summer races like the Rich Hill and Thorndon Mile's.

I can already hear some of you saying but what about his colts. Fair enough he seems a bit under represented there but if you understand Hong Kong form you'll appreciate just how good a horse More Bountiful is. Voted their Most Improved Horse for the 2007/08 season, the Helen Phinney bred gelding converted that promise to a group one win last season and once again he'll be competitive with HK's best this season between 1400 and 2000m.

Another horse capable of adding to the VN momentum is the three-year filly La Collina who ran just back of midfield in Friday's Levin Classic.

Which leads me to the question as to how are we likely to mark VN. I think sometimes we forget how few stallions actually 'make it'. But what is making it ? I think sometimes we can be too narrow with that definition. Does it always have to mean just stakeswinning progeny?

Some stallions can contribute to the evolution of our breed in other ways, be it as broodmare sires or just simply as propagators of phenotypes. I can already hear some saying but if you can't pass on class what good are you doing the gene pool. Now my school science marks were only marginally better than my french grades but I do believe you are good servant to your breed by simply passing on desirable physical attributes. For it's when these genes are united with the right class factor genes, and sometimes it takes a generation or too, that a high class horse is the result.

So what's the VN's legacy going to be in these parts? Having left a number of high class female performers re known for their toughness and athleticism, these mares will become welcome additions to our broodmare gene pool in the years ahead. And that's where I feel his presence will be most felt.

Despite his improving statistic's I suspect VN won't be rushed back to our shores any time soon but in his own way he's left a mark on our industry.

By the way that sweet looking filly's name is Denali Dancer. She'll keep.

Still A Way To Go

There's little doubt our racing industry has come a long way in regards professional standards over the last 5 or so years. The Australian born Chief Steward whose name just escapes me played a significant part in this, particularly with creating some accountability notably amongst the jockey ranks.

I still saw a couple of things this week that disturbed me, particularly as someone who enjoys a bet.

At Rotorua a well backed first starter hit the running rail that hard - she may have even tried to jump the running rail - she came back to scale with blood pouring from a leg injury.

Yet you read the stewards report and all it states is that " she over raced during the middle stages".

There is a big difference between over racing and hitting the fence that hard. The later has more seriously impacted her ability to finish off the race.

Secondly and yes I talk through my pocket with this one. Yesterday at Hawkes Bay Volgus, who has run on the speed or near enough to it in his three prior starts is dropped out of the gates a distant last. They hack at best up front and the jockey makes no effort to improve until the leaders put the pace on from the 600m at which stage he is four wide in a five horse field. You just don't run sub 33 second 600ms at Hastings unless you are an Excellent.

There is no way in my mind that Volgus was given every chance to win that race. Okay I appreciate that connections have him on a Derby campaign and are probably trying to get him to settle but if he was ridden to instructions yesterday where was the announcement to punters prior to the start that these tactics would attempt to be employed.

As a punter there's still things with NZ racing sometimes that would make you place a bet on a Sicilian Maiden before you d touch a Kiwi race.

So What Do You Think Now?

Just like any sport, horse racing has it's share of anti climaxes.

It would be great but there are not Cox Plate moments like Saturday every week.

I got the impression a lot of fans thought the Caulfield Guineas - do you remember that race - was a bit of a let down.

Before the race the media and other industry players, some respected enough to make lofty assessments , were in awe of the Australian three-year-old crop. Some were calling it equal to the class of 99 or even more dramatically, on par with Ochy and co from 96.

And then thanks to an unhearlded colt in Starspangledbanner and a group of jockeys who pannicked, more reputations came crashing down in one minute and 36 seconds than in the Roosters pre season.

But three weeks can be a long time in horse racing and now suddenly there is a little redemption for the crop of 2009.

So You Think has grabbed Denman's mantle and some with his dramatic Cox Plate victory and Manhatten Rain ran right up to Gai's assessment of him with his tough second to Cumming's latest star.

It doesn't stop there; even the often maligned VRC Derby looks like shaping up as one of the more even contests in many years. Shamoline Warrior who looked to have the race at his mercy a fortnight ago may still be able to salvage Mark Kavanagh's spring but he will have a battle on his hands with the likes of the rangy Hanks, the professional Extra Zero and the kiwi pair of Monaco Consul and Our Heir Apparent.

History will show that 2009 was a pretty good vintage.

Bachelor Duke: Maybe It's The Heir Down Under?

I've never really figured out why some stallions do well in the NH but are not nearly as dominant down under or vice versa. The most obvious recent example is Gallileo.

There was a theory put forward going back before Montjeu and Scenic 'took off ' that the Sadlers Wells line wouldn't succeed in the SH because the breeds stock were too light boned to cope with the firmer tracks and were more suited to the softer European going.

I'm sure differences between racing environments do dictate performance just as you'd be odds on to win a debate arguing that Langfuhr, Thunder Gulch and Distorted Humour failed down under because their stock showed a strong pre disposition to the dirt tracks that we don't have. But turn it around and why has More Than Ready, predominantly a sire of dirt performers
in the USA, been so much more successful in Australia.

The Oaks Stud's Bachelor Duke could be about to become the newest member of stallion's suffering from location based performance anxiety club.

In the NH Bachelor Duke's performance is decidedly average. After a relatively promising start with his two-year-olds, including a group three winner, his three-year-olds have failed to live up to that early promise.

It's early days for the shuttle stallion down under but the signs look a lot more encouraging.

In Keyora, Single Currency and Prince of Wales, the second-season sire has three distinct chances for the 2000 Guineas and the Levin Classic both at group one level. That's a pretty useful statistic made even more significant when you consider that's from 51 live foals in his first SH season.

Don't be put off by the 40 to 1 winning dividend and that some form analysts have rated this years Hawkes Bay Guineas a 'swoopers' race following the fast early sectionals. Keyora beat a Guineas field with some depth and had to come down the outside section of track which was significantly inferior in condition to the inside section on Kelt day.

The unbeaten Single Currency may only have won a maiden at Taupo and a midweek R70 at Hastings but it was the ease of both victories which left the impression that his future lies in a much stronger grade.

Some may have thought Prince of Wales a tad over-rated after he could only manage third as favourite in his final juvenile assignment the Listed Castletown Stakes at Foxton back in June.

On closer examination the Paul Moroney trained colt was probably entitled to be cut a little slack.

While Prince of Wales had won his previous start on a slow track at Tauranga, young horses often get away with such performances against their own age group on tracks they don't prefer and a slow surface at Foxton has beeen the undoing of many a more highly rated horse. Add to that his running on a left handed track for the first time and getting trapped three wide for a good part of the race and the good looking colt still deserved to go to his winter quarters as one of the more likely candidate's for group honours at three - oh and don't forget Aspinal, who finished behind him in the Castletown has since run third in the Hawkes Bay Guineas.

His fillies are a bit thinner on the ground so far this season but Bewitch who was twice stakes placed at two and Obsession who also looked a likely sort are both down to resume shortly.

Before you start thinking that Bachelor Duke is only a sire of males, think again because his best runner to date in the NH is the filly Luminous Eyes, a group three winner at two and group three placed this term.

Horse breeders have longer memories than Laurie Mains and the deeds - or lack of more to the point - of Miswaki's most celebrated sire sons in this country in the form of Le Belvedere and Rossini would have made Bachelor Duke's early promotion difficult despite his resume containing success in the Group One Irish 2000 Guineas.

The fact that he was from a Seattle Slew mare would have made The Oaks Marketing and Nominations manager's job even more difficult - but he s got broad shoulders - for despite 'Slews' legendary status as a sire of sires in the USA, the mostly dirt propagator has had much less success outside his home land.

As types the Bachelor Duke's tend to be medium sized with attractive heads and well balanced athletic bodies. It's far from a criticism such is their quality in front, but often they are better from the wither forward than behind the saddle.

Already the influence of the Oak's GM Rick Williams has come through in the pedigree's of Bachelor Duke's better runners. Williams who had great success when he presided over Waikato Stud with targeted line breeding to influential matrons, particularly with their Pompeii Court, seems to have cottoned onto the genetic horse power of duplicating the taproot mare Special through her full sister Lisadell - the great grand dam of Bachelor Duke - with significant impact.

In the sorts of results that make all line breeding theorists run to the top of the nearest hill, Prince of Wales, Obsession and Keyora all feature the duplication.

But theories aside at the end of the day it probably pays to not get too over analytical about the variation of performance between hemispheres and put it down to just another quirk of horse racing and breeding that keeps us enthusiast's on our toes and driven to breed the next champion.

And for the longterm good of our industry in particular it's refreshing to have unearthed a mould breaking bloodline for incorporation into a genetic pool saturated with so much close-up Northern Dancer, Danzig and Danehill blood.

Arise the Duke.