Still A Way To Go

There's little doubt our racing industry has come a long way in regards professional standards over the last 5 or so years. The Australian born Chief Steward whose name just escapes me played a significant part in this, particularly with creating some accountability notably amongst the jockey ranks.

I still saw a couple of things this week that disturbed me, particularly as someone who enjoys a bet.

At Rotorua a well backed first starter hit the running rail that hard - she may have even tried to jump the running rail - she came back to scale with blood pouring from a leg injury.

Yet you read the stewards report and all it states is that " she over raced during the middle stages".

There is a big difference between over racing and hitting the fence that hard. The later has more seriously impacted her ability to finish off the race.

Secondly and yes I talk through my pocket with this one. Yesterday at Hawkes Bay Volgus, who has run on the speed or near enough to it in his three prior starts is dropped out of the gates a distant last. They hack at best up front and the jockey makes no effort to improve until the leaders put the pace on from the 600m at which stage he is four wide in a five horse field. You just don't run sub 33 second 600ms at Hastings unless you are an Excellent.

There is no way in my mind that Volgus was given every chance to win that race. Okay I appreciate that connections have him on a Derby campaign and are probably trying to get him to settle but if he was ridden to instructions yesterday where was the announcement to punters prior to the start that these tactics would attempt to be employed.

As a punter there's still things with NZ racing sometimes that would make you place a bet on a Sicilian Maiden before you d touch a Kiwi race.

So What Do You Think Now?

Just like any sport, horse racing has it's share of anti climaxes.

It would be great but there are not Cox Plate moments like Saturday every week.

I got the impression a lot of fans thought the Caulfield Guineas - do you remember that race - was a bit of a let down.

Before the race the media and other industry players, some respected enough to make lofty assessments , were in awe of the Australian three-year-old crop. Some were calling it equal to the class of 99 or even more dramatically, on par with Ochy and co from 96.

And then thanks to an unhearlded colt in Starspangledbanner and a group of jockeys who pannicked, more reputations came crashing down in one minute and 36 seconds than in the Roosters pre season.

But three weeks can be a long time in horse racing and now suddenly there is a little redemption for the crop of 2009.

So You Think has grabbed Denman's mantle and some with his dramatic Cox Plate victory and Manhatten Rain ran right up to Gai's assessment of him with his tough second to Cumming's latest star.

It doesn't stop there; even the often maligned VRC Derby looks like shaping up as one of the more even contests in many years. Shamoline Warrior who looked to have the race at his mercy a fortnight ago may still be able to salvage Mark Kavanagh's spring but he will have a battle on his hands with the likes of the rangy Hanks, the professional Extra Zero and the kiwi pair of Monaco Consul and Our Heir Apparent.

History will show that 2009 was a pretty good vintage.

Bachelor Duke: Maybe It's The Heir Down Under?

I've never really figured out why some stallions do well in the NH but are not nearly as dominant down under or vice versa. The most obvious recent example is Gallileo.

There was a theory put forward going back before Montjeu and Scenic 'took off ' that the Sadlers Wells line wouldn't succeed in the SH because the breeds stock were too light boned to cope with the firmer tracks and were more suited to the softer European going.

I'm sure differences between racing environments do dictate performance just as you'd be odds on to win a debate arguing that Langfuhr, Thunder Gulch and Distorted Humour failed down under because their stock showed a strong pre disposition to the dirt tracks that we don't have. But turn it around and why has More Than Ready, predominantly a sire of dirt performers
in the USA, been so much more successful in Australia.

The Oaks Stud's Bachelor Duke could be about to become the newest member of stallion's suffering from location based performance anxiety club.

In the NH Bachelor Duke's performance is decidedly average. After a relatively promising start with his two-year-olds, including a group three winner, his three-year-olds have failed to live up to that early promise.

It's early days for the shuttle stallion down under but the signs look a lot more encouraging.

In Keyora, Single Currency and Prince of Wales, the second-season sire has three distinct chances for the 2000 Guineas and the Levin Classic both at group one level. That's a pretty useful statistic made even more significant when you consider that's from 51 live foals in his first SH season.

Don't be put off by the 40 to 1 winning dividend and that some form analysts have rated this years Hawkes Bay Guineas a 'swoopers' race following the fast early sectionals. Keyora beat a Guineas field with some depth and had to come down the outside section of track which was significantly inferior in condition to the inside section on Kelt day.

The unbeaten Single Currency may only have won a maiden at Taupo and a midweek R70 at Hastings but it was the ease of both victories which left the impression that his future lies in a much stronger grade.

Some may have thought Prince of Wales a tad over-rated after he could only manage third as favourite in his final juvenile assignment the Listed Castletown Stakes at Foxton back in June.

On closer examination the Paul Moroney trained colt was probably entitled to be cut a little slack.

While Prince of Wales had won his previous start on a slow track at Tauranga, young horses often get away with such performances against their own age group on tracks they don't prefer and a slow surface at Foxton has beeen the undoing of many a more highly rated horse. Add to that his running on a left handed track for the first time and getting trapped three wide for a good part of the race and the good looking colt still deserved to go to his winter quarters as one of the more likely candidate's for group honours at three - oh and don't forget Aspinal, who finished behind him in the Castletown has since run third in the Hawkes Bay Guineas.

His fillies are a bit thinner on the ground so far this season but Bewitch who was twice stakes placed at two and Obsession who also looked a likely sort are both down to resume shortly.

Before you start thinking that Bachelor Duke is only a sire of males, think again because his best runner to date in the NH is the filly Luminous Eyes, a group three winner at two and group three placed this term.

Horse breeders have longer memories than Laurie Mains and the deeds - or lack of more to the point - of Miswaki's most celebrated sire sons in this country in the form of Le Belvedere and Rossini would have made Bachelor Duke's early promotion difficult despite his resume containing success in the Group One Irish 2000 Guineas.

The fact that he was from a Seattle Slew mare would have made The Oaks Marketing and Nominations manager's job even more difficult - but he s got broad shoulders - for despite 'Slews' legendary status as a sire of sires in the USA, the mostly dirt propagator has had much less success outside his home land.

As types the Bachelor Duke's tend to be medium sized with attractive heads and well balanced athletic bodies. It's far from a criticism such is their quality in front, but often they are better from the wither forward than behind the saddle.

Already the influence of the Oak's GM Rick Williams has come through in the pedigree's of Bachelor Duke's better runners. Williams who had great success when he presided over Waikato Stud with targeted line breeding to influential matrons, particularly with their Pompeii Court, seems to have cottoned onto the genetic horse power of duplicating the taproot mare Special through her full sister Lisadell - the great grand dam of Bachelor Duke - with significant impact.

In the sorts of results that make all line breeding theorists run to the top of the nearest hill, Prince of Wales, Obsession and Keyora all feature the duplication.

But theories aside at the end of the day it probably pays to not get too over analytical about the variation of performance between hemispheres and put it down to just another quirk of horse racing and breeding that keeps us enthusiast's on our toes and driven to breed the next champion.

And for the longterm good of our industry in particular it's refreshing to have unearthed a mould breaking bloodline for incorporation into a genetic pool saturated with so much close-up Northern Dancer, Danzig and Danehill blood.

Arise the Duke.

Kelt Observations

I walked the track about 11am on Friday morning. The rail was back in it's true position after been out 4m for Windsor Park day and 2m on the first day.

The difference in the quality of going between the inside say about 2 horsewidths and that next section of track was like night and day.

As a consequence if you were making your runs further out than 2 horse widths on Kelt day you were severely disadvantaged.

There were two races on the Kelt card both with different end results which supported this theory. They were the Guineas and the last.

In the Guineas the went like cut cats up front after the Hombre and others drawn wide were keen to find the rail. Sure the runs of Keyora and St Germaine were impressive coming down the outside in the worst part of the track but they didn't distance the leading pack when conceivably they should have.

I wouldn't drop The Hombre on that run. Apparently John Barry had felt he hadn't come through his middle day run as well as he could. He sweated up markedly on the day, the horse that is not John, which sometimes indicates all is not 100%. I will be interested to see if they give him a break now.

The two up front went quickly in the last too but there wasn't quite the pressure of the Guineas and the jockeys rated Mamasan and Pinnafero expertly. They kicked off the corner and the race was over.

This rail bias, rather than on pace bias has played a relevant part now on two out of the last four Kelt days and on both occasions - Legs in 2006 the other - it has come on the back of a wet second day.

Logic says you reserve the best ground for your feature day but maybe it's worth looking at racing in the true position on the first day, before going out 4m on the second day. That way the rail won't be true virgin turf on Kelt day.

It may encourage more of the serious punting fraternity to open their wallets on the final day. I note turnover on Kelt day was down as much as 19% which is probably mostly to do with the times but worth considering all the same.

Ánd I won't be dropping Thundermore on his Guineas run. He'd gone on tremendously physically from his first day win and I'm a sucker for the good looks. I just wished when I stood in the tote que that I had reminded myself he had only two lifetime starts. The Guineas was a pressure cooker race. Maybe it's more symptomatic with colts but inexperienced horses can often switch off when they get crowded. Like Denman he'll keep.

Some Light On The Caulfield Cup

So the Godolphin and Cumani charges have landed in Melbourne. I can hear the cynics already.

I shouldn't be amongst them - Jardines Lookout helped me to a decent share of a big Melbourne Cup trifecta one year.

Sure the list of casualties is long but when the NH visitors turn up with their A game, they are a multiple players delight. Taufan's Melody the winner of the demolition derby which doubled as the 98 Caulfield Cup was friendless down under at 66/1 and last years winner on the Heath, All The Good, returned almost 50/1.

Before you run to your computers to study race records, here's a tip - if these sorts of prices didn't already tell you - the Vinnie Roe's and Vintage Crop's aside, there's little in the way of a form pattern to the performances of the NH horses downunder.

But as with most things, try something enough times and those with the perseverance and resources will eventually find a formula that works as best it can opposed by the nuances that are staying handicaps in a different timezone and climate.

It's a formula that is starting to pass the experiment stage and two key ingredients are the Godolphin and Cumani stables.

So am I in the camp of the foreigners? I have been impressed with what I've seen of Kirklees's races. He has good tactical speed enabling him to race on the pace, where he settles well, and kick for home. It''s difficult to win Caulfield Cups with 56kgs but the other fundamentals are there for him to be in the first three.

Cima De Triomphe looked to me to be a different kettle of fish. He seems to switch on and off and looks to need to be held up. I just got the impression - rightly or wrongly - that he may not be the toughest. Who am I to question Luca Cumani and Damien Oliver but I'm going to lay him in this race.

I''ve liked Light Vision for a while now. He's just that slow maturing, patiently handled staying horse who gets in these type of races with little or no fuss and weight. And a particularly good attribute he has for Caulfield is his ability to race on the pace. Although initially disappointed with his wide barrier there is not a great deal of speed in the race and he should be able to possie up in the first 4 or 5 by the 1800m. I feel he's a similar type of horse to the likes of Duoro Valley and Barbaricus who have placed in this race at long odds the last two years.

My other banker today is Roman Emperor trained by the master whose eyelashes can be seen from outer space. 'Bart has given him a slow build up and the last two starts he has looked to come into the race but just lacked a finishing kick. The blinkers go on today for the first time since his AJC Derby triumph and that should be the touch that can see him sprint more keenly off what should be a handy in running spot from barrier 4.

Horses that run well in this race tend to be either the class horses dropping back in weight from WFA racing who can position reasonably handy to the pace, the less classier handicappers which I described above or the real improving types who have literally jumped through the briddle during the spring and beaten the handicapper. In the later category horses like Ethereal and Railings come to mind from recent times. Further back and you come across the likes of Arctic Scent.

Viewed and more significantly Predatory Pricer because of the greater weight drop, fit into the first category. Viewed was a touch unlucky in this contest last year and I don't believe the weight rise this year needs to be a consideration - he s good enough and physically more mature enough to cope. It's his pattern of racing to get back and a lot of the time - not all the time - those horses don't win this race. He's good enough to be in the money though.

I predict Predatory Pricer will be ridden agressively to get handy this afternoon. I see there is likely to be a dead at best track which won't help him. If he had drawn better and the Melbourne weather was more settled he would have been clearly my top selection.

Allez Wonder fits into the final category and can resurrect the very good record 4 year-old mares had in this race in the 90s and early this century.

Although asked to carry 1.5kgs more than Allez Wonder, another four-year-old mare the kiwi Daffodil is in form and her final 100m of the Kelt was strong. She has shown she can travel and the rain around Melbourne is going to help her.

The best of the longer priced runners I feel is Red Lord who carries no weight and should be ridden more patiently today than he has recently.

In summary I feel Roman Emperor and Light Vision can be in the money at good odds and you could look to take them in multiples around Kirklees,Predatory Pricer, Daffodil and Allez Wonder, with Viewed, Master O'Reilly and Red Lord to run third.

It's traditionally a difficult race for punters and this years contest is no different with an $8.50 favourite.

Ratings

I see Timeform earlier this week gave See The Stars a provisional rating of 140 stating " He is a once in a lifetime horse".

Timeforms top ratings over the years they ve existed, which is about 50 I think, are;


Brigader Gerard 144

Mill Reef 141

Sea The Stars 140

Dubai Millennium 140

Dancing Brave 140

Shergar 140


I was in the UK in 2002 and saw Rock of Gibralter who I think ended with a Timeform rating of "only" 135. I still consider him the best horse I ve seen in the flesh. How good must the Brigader or little Mill Reef have been.

Despite the best analysis, ratings are still subjective and given the variables, particularly track conditions, it must be difficult to line up horses from generation to generation, let alone from race to race.

Still over the years Timeform have developed a reputation for their objectivity and accuracy.

I ve seen a couple of new rating systems spring up over the last year or two which attempt to take a more global look at performance.

It would be an extremely useful tool for breeders and bloodstock buyers if a thoroughly global ratings system existed. Of course it would be too much to ask that it was as comprehensive a job as Timeform do of the UK form but even if it concentrated on stakes racing it would be decidely beneficial.

It would need to be less clynical than the NZ Free Handicap which I've often struggled with. Can someone explain to me how a horse who wins a four horse Listed two-year-old race on a wet track at Wingatui can be rated above a place getter in a competitive Matamata Breeders Stakes? Believe me it happens.

The English seem to do impartiality well - remember Chamberlain - so my vote would go to Timeform to manage a global system.

Just looking at those ratings, what a year 1971 must have been in the UK for racing fans.

The three year old crop featured Brigader Gerrad, Mill Reef, My Swallow ( who rated 138 I recall) and the french colt Caro.

Not too many would argue Timeform got those ratings right.

Speaking of three-year-old crops, this seasons in NZ is shaping up nicely. The HB Guineas could be the highlight of Kelt Day.

But how good is the Australian crop? I wondered if I d see a better vintage than the 99/00 season which contained the likes of Redoutes Choice, Testa Rosa, Commands, Align, Pins and Diatribe.

Denman, Trusting, More Than Great, Black Caviar, Shoot Out, Manhatten Rain and So You Think are a pretty good starting point, but time will tell. It maybe a good opportunity for a pro active studmaster to strike.

Pity Real Saga was retired. I wonder how Timeform would assess Denman?

Mudgeway

Organic whitebait?? And I thought some studs were pretty creative with their marketing.

Fair dinkum, I saw this sign on the way down to Hawkes Bay on the side of the road, south of Cambridge I think it was.

Speaking of things creative, I got told a good story at the races on Saturday about a guy who asks for extra gluten with his cake at cafes.

I like that one. I 'm going to order that, along with one I ve been wanting to ask for for a while, the double shot decaf. I guess as long as it's chic, some cafe in Auckland will serve it to me.

There's something pretty theraputic about coming over that rise on the Naiper Taupo Rd and seeing the splendour of the Hawkes Bay before you. And does it ever rain down there?

Well that should guarantee Graham Avery's allowance for a couple more months at least. I could do with it as you ll see.

Beautiful spring day, firm track, good horses, it was time to blow the cobwebs off the wallet.

I 'm not superstitious but I kind of knew I was in trouble when I ignored the winners of the first two races despite getting tipped into both.

And it got progressively worse. As you do, you then start to search for odds instead of sticking to your hunches - which shallow person said punting on the horses isn't a reflection of life.

Just to rub salt into the wounds my surething multi - The Pooka/Mufhasa/Wall Street went Waipukurau courtesy of Tavistocks head.

Anyway I'll stop playing the violin and here are some observations from the day.

Hastings must be one of the more picturesque courses in the country. You never tire of looking at the Kawekas especially this time of year when dappled in snow and the parade ring is sited perfectly to view the horses. I 'd love to grab an architect for the other facilities though. Put a second story with balcony on the Cheval Lounge and a sweeping carriageway on the back of the Members. The Lowry Public stand has probably the best views of any Public stand in the land and you wouldn'y have to do too much externally. Internally, it's a different matter. I 'll see if the Cloak Room is interested.

So Royal missed the jump in the first and was no hope afterwards but got home nicely. She paraded looking bright and is one to follow through the spring.

Thundermore - doesn't that name have a great ring to it - is clearly the horse to follow out of the 2nd and the blinkers should improve him further although he still needs to find a couple of lengths to match the Heckler, Flying Fulton, Kings Ransom and co in the Hawkes Bay Guineas.

Don't write off Benny the Ball on that run. He got a nasty check with 600 to run. He's a nice mover and there is a good word around for him.

One thing that did occur to me is that that horse of Rogersons, Gaston who beat Thundermore at Taupo must go okay. The third horse that day Rampant is highly regarded and remember Rampant pushed The Hombre on debut last season. I see he's nominated for the Wanganui Guineas this Saturday.

The Hombre was probably the most impressive winner on the day - he was over half a second quicker for his last 400m than Thundermore and Morelle - although I fancy some of those behind him will improve significantly. Corsage in partcular was very big in condition and she's likely to still be a run short going into the Gold Trail.

Blessed with the most magnificent of strides The Hombre is a sight in full flight. A big framed type he still has a bit more filling out to do and I trust they don't over race him in the spring because in 6 to 12 months time I feel he could be very exciting.

What odds Lucky Owners to top our second season sires list? With the Heckler still to step out this season, would Widden consider a shuttle?

It was good to see The Pooka return to form but I question what he beat. While he looked better physically on Saturday than he did the couple of times I saw him last season, he still doesnt carry the muscular definition he did when he was a two-year-old colt. Will he return to the form he displayed in the 2000 Guineas beating Alamosa and Rios?

I made a point of trying to watching as many of the Kelt contenders post race and All In Black certainly had the biggest blow. I though her run held merit. Not many could sustain runs around the outside all day and she came to the end of it 100 out. She may still have maturing to do physically and I think her best form could be in the autumn.

Racing horses is all about emotion and it was great to see some well sized groups of owners in the likes of Thundermore, The Hombre and Tavistock really enjoying the moment.

I've been to a few Mudgeways in recent years and I can't recall seeing so many of the main race looking so forward. Usually there's a few behind in their coat or sporting a partial winter girth but not last Saturday. I wonder if connections of some who won't contest one or both of the remaining legs thought here was their opportunity to take a Group One particularly with likes of Mufhasa going in fresh and drawing wide.

Mufhasa looks to have grown and thickened. To me last season he had a slight boyish look about him but on Saturday he looked liked he grown out of the jeans and tees into the three piece suit. I'd love to see him go to Aussie at the top of his form.

The aptly named Tavistock retains a lot of the classical looks of the English thoroughbred. Whilst not as appealing to the eye as say Nom De Jeu, particularly through the body, he has a lovely head and eye which befits his kind temprament.

Can he win the Kelt?

Not for me. I think the three tough races in 5 weeks may just find his constitution out. I would love to be proven wrong because the post race party would be huge and secondly he becomes a legitimate stallion prospect for our industry.

For mine the Kelt winner wasn't at the Bay on Saturday. He was getting home nicely enough in a much more sedate 1200m contest 4 hours north of there. And his hardest foe was standing in her box at Awapuni.