New Years Day at Ellerslie

The country's best days racing has predictably thrown up fields with depth and the odd potential star - shame about Mosse.

Moneytree will be very short in race 2 but Uno Five can test the favourite. He's afraid of his own shadow this guy but he is full of courage and can sit on the likely leader Little Wonder and get a break around the turn on Moneytree.

Te Akau should win another Eclipse Stakes with Catalonia. He appreciated the step to 1100m last start and on type and breeding he should be stronger again at 1200m-1400m. Fantastic Honour is another horse that is going to enjoy the step up in distance and her young trainers are going places.

This is not the strongest Dunstan Final. While the Central Districts horses often run well in this race and Casino looks a real up and comer, it is hard to see him beating Polyantha who would have started favourite in the City of Auckland Cup had connections gone that way. Grande Bellezza relaxes well and with the rail out from Boxing Day she maybe hard to peg back if left alone in front. Polyantha looks the bet of the day.

Despite sitting wide Habibi was very strong over the closing stages on Boxing Day suggesting she is only going to be better over more ground. Looking at her parade the other day you would only have wanted to be on one horse; physically she was well ahead of her contemporaries and very relaxed. So long as she has backed-up she will be too strong for an average bunch. Look for Alert to be running on.

Traditionally they crawl in the Royal Stakes and it often produces a turn-up. Soriano came home well last start and may have the drop on Fix in this. Physically the Darling One looks a progressive type and may back-up better than most; with her draw and ability to race on the pace she is good each-way value. The race pattern is not likely to suit her but look for Sultry Assassin to be running on. She looks an Oaks type of filly.

The Rich Hill is a challenging betting race. A number of the better credentialed runners are not well weighted and/or have drawn awkwardly, plus the race does not map with much pace. Depending whom you listen to there were a number of hard luck stories in Sir Lovesalot's win at Te Rapa. It looks the form race for this and while he did not necessarily get the same plaudits as Full of Spirit and Historian, Spin Doctor's run was full of merit. If he can get any sort of run he can win this. The progressive Diademe drops a lot in weight and should be able to take a reasonable position on the speed. You could do a lot worse than box Full of Spirit, Spin Doctor, Historian, Joey Massino, Diademe, and Miss Pelear.

I would love to see him win but Burgundy looks poor value. He was not convincing at Otaki and the form only looks average. Fleur De Lune comes in very well under the set weights and conditions but she has done this before when given her more favoured rain affected track, and not delivered. Durham Lad paraded poorly last start but still ran a nice race. If he has gone ahead he looks the one to beat. Jetset Lad, Demophon and Ginner Hart are value.

Annie Higgins should beat an average lot in the Cup. She races well here and if you follow horses running well at the same time each year she was an excellent second in the Royal Stakes this day two seasons ago. The quinella at Te Rapa can repeat. Tempelten is the blowout. He grows another leg here when the track is firm and his run last start had merit. Put Le Moussier and La Chaparrone in your multiples.

The promising Glad can beat an average field in the last, with her last start conqueror Casual Fling the biggest danger.

Oak Park is the best bet at Hastings.

Summer Seven:

Away from the obvious here are seven horses to follow over the summer and beyond on good tracks:

Polyantha: Long striding four-year-old Encosta De Lago mare who appreciated the step to 2100m at Ellerslie last start to record a comprehensive win. Switches off in her races whatever the tempo and can really let down over the concluding stages; great attributes for a modern day stayer. Maybe a year too soon but with the staying ranks lacking any stars, she is a genuine lightweight chance in races like the City of Auckland and Wellington Cups.

Sir Lovesalot: The virtue of patience is never more in evidence than the career of the lightly raced four-year-old. Plenty of good judges tried to buy the athletic yet lightly framed youngster at Karaka, but chances are not too many would played the waiting game like Donna and Dean Logan. Their point of advantage is the sandy Ruakaka track at their doorstep which stays in reasonable shape throughout the year, an advantage for a local stables educating young horses through the winter months. Always possessing a good turn of foot, strengthening with age has meant the stallion can now use it at both ends of a race, as he displayed when making a winning step from R85 company to a Listed 1400m event at Te Rapa. Will be a major player in the Rich Hill and Thorndon Miles, and with his speed and strength it is not inconceivable to see him competitive at WFA next season.

Auspicious: Another of the stock of Darci Brahma coming into their own at four. Can make things difficult for herself with slow getaways but always gets home strongly, which was exactly the pattern in her most recent start, at Matamata over 1400m on 20 December - her last 200m down the short straight was particularly impressive. No world beater but looks capable of adding at least a couple more wins to the resume when she gets to 1600m and beyond.

Le Choix: Inexperience was always going to be the challenge for the unbeaten gelding going into the Levin Classic after just two career starts, and it probably bought about his defeat as he over raced slightly in the early stages and narrowly failed to hold off the finishing burst of Southern Lord. Generous and Sir Tristram provide sufficient stamina influences on his dam side, and he was relaxing and finding the line strongly over 1400m prior to Otaki, to suggest he can run out a strong mile.

Alert: The maiden win of Alert at last weeks twilight meeting got a little overlooked in the wake of Costume's success but as far as longer term staying engagements are concerned the relentless way the athletic Zabeel gelding chased down the leaders from the turn held a great deal of promise. Although he will never be a big horse, Alert is still some way from physical maturity and possibly the NZ Derby is a tad soon. His temperament at Ellerslie however looked robust suggesting he may yet cope with the next two months. Look for further improvement once the blinkers go on.

Future King: Looked like living up to his reputation and name when scoring an outstanding win at Ellerslie earlier in the month, running the quickest 600m sectional of the season at the course. That form was franked somewhat when the runner-up Schonner Bay won easily at Ellerslie last Sunday. With just two career wins the four-year-old entire will need to win a good race to get a start in the Telegraph, and while Mosse and Burgundy will be all the rage, he will be their toughest threat on a good surface.

Spin Doctor: Five-year-old son of Pins who had slipped beneath the radar of most until his strong finish for second to Sir Lovesalot in a listed 1400m at Te Rapa last weekend. The improvement in the nuggety gelding should have been evident when fresh-up he beat the speedy Whoseyourmaster over 1100m at Ellerslie late last month. Genuine type whose ability to handle most track conditions and distances to at least to a mile – he has won twice at the trip – will hold him in good stead.

Unquestionably Ellerslie form from the last month is the form to follow.

Silent Achiever followed a maiden win at the Ellerslie twilight meeting with a rather unlucky third in the Eight Carat Classic last season and Costume, who was every bit as impressive at the corresponding twilight meeting last week, should be very hard to beat in a Eight Carat line-up that looks considerably weaker than last years version.

Just missing the cut were Casino, Planet Rock, Wanabe, Taaxman and Abraham Lincoln. 

Mid Term Report: Promise in Certain Areas

As is common this time of the year, the good horses start to show their class. Mosse looks one of the most exciting horses seen in these parts for a good while with his Mr Tiz like sprint performances. His clash with Burgundy in the Railway looks the highlight of the Ellerslie Xmas Carnival, and if Future King can remain sound, he could test them both in the Telegraph. Throw in the likes of Xanadu, who is set to resume in the race and the Telegraph shapes as the race of the season.

The juvenile division looks as strong as it has been in a number of years and lets hope we see a return clash between Bounding and Ruud Awakening. Unfortunately Doubtless, who won his only start so impressively back in September at Ruakaka has been sold to Hong Kong, but Recite and Catalonia look talented.

Once again the three-year-old filly ranks look strong. Although Roll Out The Carpet was a deserving winner of the 1000 Guineas, the very slow mid race sectionals made it next to impossible for anything back in the field to make ground, so look for some of the beaten brigade to make amends in races like the Eight Carat and Desert Gold.

With Sacred Falls taking a break and Southern Lord departing for Singapore, the lightly raced pair of Touch Win, who was slightly disappointing at Otaki, and Le Choix, a brave second in the Classic despite over racing slightly, look black type winners in the making up to a mile at least.

Two $10 equal favourites for the Derby reflect a Classic crop devoid of any genuine staying prospects at this stage. The result of Championship Stakes Prelude at Ellerslie on Sunday did nothing to change that.

The older staying ranks look thin and sadly this has been a developing trend for two or three seasons. Counties Cup winner Jeu De Cartes has risen very quickly in the weights, and may find the extra 200m beyond her range, and while the Waikato Cup quinella of Annie Higgins and Better Together will have their supporters, their must be question marks about the depth of the Te Rapa race. Punters maybe more inclined to look to some of the emerging but untested talent, such as Polyantha, Storming the Tower and Thunderbird One.

Future King: Winning Favour

If you follow racing long enough you will soon become accustomed to the hype that surrounds the well bred, good looking types. And it tends to grow quicker than an Andrew Hore moustache if they can show some talent. Only on rare occasions does the end result match the build-up, but in the case of the unashamedly named Future King, local racing may have it's long awaited version of Sonny Bill Williams.

Amongst a number of impressive performances at Ellerslie on Saturday, none were superior than that put up by Future King in winning the Hyland Race Colours 1100

History will more than likely show that he only beat a bunch of lower grade sprinters, although that maybe doing a disservice to the promising Schooner Bay, but it was the manner in which the overtly handsome entire son of Encosta De Lago put paid to the field at the 200m that left an edilable impression.

What was visually powerful, was also supported by the clock, which showed the event run faster than the corresponding event for the R85 sprinters and a last 600m off the front in 34.10. Future King came from third last at the 400m and was clearly eased up by rider Vinnie Colgan over the final 100m, so he must have comfortably broken the telling 34 second mark.

Unfortunately Future King is unsound. It is speculation whether but for those problems he would be unbeaten after four career starts, but when you see him win like that on Saturday and watch the way he won at Taupo in September, it is difficult to fathom how he was beaten into second and third at his two other starts.

As a type Future King is a lovely blend of his sire and his dam, Foxwood - a dual group one winning daughter of Centaine. He is not built in the manner of the taller and longer Encosta De Lago's like Sirmione, Lashed, Road to Rock or Princess Coup. Instead he reminds one on type of a slightly shorter version of the muscular Von Costa De Hero, a talented racehorse and Australian based freshman sire who was probably Encosta De Lago's quickest son until Northern Meteor came along. There is also some physical resemblance to his barn mate, He's Remarkable.

Future King has the speed to win a Group One Telegraph Handicap and going on Saturday s performance he may also have the class. With his regal pedigree and looks, such success would guarantee him a home at a very good stud.

As a bull he has an ability to put weight on his suspect frame easily so trainer Roger James has an even bigger challenge than the one he endured throughout the career of arguably the most talented horse he has trained to date, Zonda. James coped admirably with that geldings afflictions and as a high class, patient conditioner he is well suited to nurse Future King through to that elusive group one victory.

Snazzy Lass: Promising Start

If you have done your homework there is always a bargain or two to be had at the National Broodmare Sale. Just ask Newmarket Lodge proprietor John O'Brien; he purchased Cashacde, the subsequent dam of Ekstreme, Maradona and Pellegrini at the 2007 Sale for just $1,000, or Angela Williams; these days running the horse side of the historic Te Parae property just outside of Masteron; she bought Maggie O'Reilly, who has since left No Excuse Maggie and Showing Off, for $7,000 in 2009.

At $70,000, Snazzy Lass was more in the Smith and Caughey section of the Sale than the Warehouse end, but she could still prove to be a bargain, particularly if the ability that her first foal Flower Bomb showed on her raceday debut at Thames last week is any guide. Debuting over 1000m, the three-year-old daughter of One Cool Cat, favourite on the back of two unbeaten efforts at the trials, had all her rivals covered as she led to the turn, before suddenly running off. Considering the short length of the Thames straight her effort to regain her compass and get up and win by a length and a half was extraordinary.

Masteron Bloodstock agent Bruce Perry purchased the unraced Snazzy Lass from the draft of Bob Émery's Belvedere Farm at the 2009 National Broodmare Sale for his longtime client, Palmerston North breeder Roy Potter. With a K1 pedigree and in foal to One Cool Cat,  who at that stage was still very popular, she was the type of mare who would have fetched close to $200,000 in headier times but this was a gloomy wet Auckland winters afternoon and the Global Financial Crisis was in full swing.

One of the more savy domestic bloodstock agents, Perry's ability is varied but he seems to have a particular eye for broodmare talent. In 1999 he purchased a package of fillies for Roy Potter with an emphasis on their breeding potential. They included subsequent group one producers River Century and Jacqwin, as well as Cenphic, Igauazu (the granddam of Sacred Falls) and Rationable, who has since left Vincent Mangano and Vigor.

As a sidelight but showcasing Perry's versatility; he shopped well at the 2009 Sale, for besides Snazzy Lass, and a cheap mare for Little Avondale, his only other purchases were two weanlings; Good Towkay(Towkay), who cost $20,000 and has won over $100,000 in Singapore, and the very promising domestic sprinter Jubilate (Falkirk), who cost just $10,000.

Viscount the sire of Snazzy Lass was a high class racehorse best remembered for his unlucky and rather controversial third placing to Northerly and Sunline in the 2001 Cox Plate. His career in the breeding shed never quite attained the same heights although he did leave Champion Singapore sprinter Rocket Man. As a son of Champion broodmare stallion Quest For Fame from a stakeswinning Sir Tristram daughter of Diamond Lover, Viscount has the pedigree to be a stronger influence as a broodmare stallion.

A strongly made mare, particularly through the shoulder and hindquarter, Snazzy Lass has a blueprint broodmare pedigree. She is a daughter of Shirley Heights, who like his sire Mill Reef, has been such pronounced broodmare influence in all the major breeding jurisdictions, while her third dam is one of Juddmonte Farms foundation mares, something that would not have been lost on Perry, who has a good understanding of European bloodlines. It is the stallion producing family of Scenic, Rainbow Quest, Warning, Commander in Chief and the young Australian based sire Old Deuteronomy.

Flower Bomb has a two-year-old O'Reilly half sister, also retained by her breeder,and also in training with Peter and Dawn Williams. Snazzy Lass does not have a yearling but she recently foaled a Savabeel colt. She is due to be served by Little Avondale's new stallion Nadeem later this week.

The best efforts by a lot of the One Cool Cat stock tend to be early in their preparations and not many have the make-up to improve with racing so it would pay to not get too carried away with the potential of Flower Bomb, however the Thames effort showed she has some ability, indicating a promising start for her dam.