If we get a night like tonight tomorrow, Ellerslie will go off.
The quaddie looks gettable, but take note that the rail is out 12.5m.
Zambezi looks a good way to start the night.
Here's my thoughts on the quaddie.
First Leg Race 5: Our Dream Catcher and Blonde Bombshell bring the best formlines and are must includes. Glendoveer who was second at her only start wanted to lay out at Te Rapa and should appreciate going the opposite way round tomorrow. November Rain is a nice filly but gets back and could struggle to make ground with the rail out. You should be ok with 1, 2 and 4.
2nd Leg Race 6: The aristocratic Maciano was running on nicely enough for third on debut and the first two home are classy sorts who would win this. He has drawn well and should get a soft run so is a must include. Mangaroa Molly is a promising type who has been crying out for 1600m but gets back. Neptune could get away with a soft lead and be hard to run down. The hardest leg if Maciano is not what we all hope he is. 4, 8, 9, and 12.
3rd Leg Race 7: You can get away with only two here, Nadege and Gallant. Nadege has struck me as a Cups horse and 1600m is ideal at this stage of her preparation. She goes up 3kgs on her last start but is a big strong mare who should cope. Gallant made ground strongly from off the pace last start and should run handier from the draw. Like Nadege he's always looked like a horse capable of reaching a much higher mark. 5 and 11.
4th Leg Race 8: So Pristine gets in well here for a two win horse and has the draw to sit handy. Tanha Strike may have won his only start at Dargaville but he ran time and had looked smart at the trials previously. He also has drawn well and should be hard to run down. 5 and 7 in the last leg.
Should be an excellent nights racing
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Sunday, December 6, 2009
My Summer Six
I always try and slip out to Avondale for their Guineas. It's no longer the great Derby guide but it s still capable of throwing up a good horse.
On paper this year's field looked a bit down in quality, certainly compared to last year, and I thought the race panned out that way. Only four lengths covered the field across the line, bar one horse.
I would be following Celtic Fantasy out of the race. I like his style of racing; he goes forward, relaxes and scraps. It would be interesting to see him get some cover in a race; he maybe able to really let down. Remember he's doing this after just three starts. There's upside with this guy and he's bred and races like he'll get over more ground.
Celtic Fantasy is an interesting horse on type. I'd expected to see either a big tall Giant's Causeway or some resemblence to Pentire Celbre his damsire, in other words lightly boned. Instead he looks to have thrown to the Mill Reef line through his grand dams sire Doyuon. He's generously barelled and proportioned through the shoulder, of medium size and quite athletic.
He didn't get hot in the yard but he had two handlers with him, just more of an indication he's very much learning his trade.
Here's six horses worth following over the summer.
Wealth Princess: A mark of a good horse is an ability to win regardless of race pattern, and that's something this four-year-old mare has already exhibited in her unbeaten three-start career. Blessed with rare aceleration she is able to get out of tight spots as she showed with her win at Te Rapa on Labour Monday. The 41's quote for the Railway is way overs.
Attackum: Running on nicely freshup behind Richard Breymer at Counties. Still lacking some ringcraft but very gifted sprinter as his domestic efforts last autumn, showed running fast sectionals and carrying weight. Subsequently ventured to Australia where his best performance was a third behind rising star Battlefield. Adds intrigue to an even lot of sprinters set to tackle the Railway and Telegraph.
Our Heir Apparent: Never a hope in the VRC Derby after getting back in a slowly run contest. By Zabeel there's good reason to believe he'll be further improved this preparation. Doesn't have the tactical speed of Monaco Consul but if it's a genuinely run NZ Derby he's a legitimate danger to the likely favourite.
Leica Scotch: I must confess to just having a "gut feel"about this Zabeel entire. First up after a year away he ran home strongly for second over 1400m to promising mare Dasoudi. Should improve with the run and more distance but don't get too carried away second up as I'm picking the fresh up run will have taken the sharpness from his legs. Will probably target a race like the Dunstan Final but I pick we can pour rather a tall one after a race such as the Hawkes Bay Cup.
O'Cartier: Showed at the recent Cup Carnival that he had recaptured the form he displayed up north last summer when fourth in a very strong Couplands Mile then backing up to win over 1400m in fast time on Cup day with 58.5kgs. Not a pretty horse particularly when at full gallop but blessed with plenty of heart and class. Remember he gave Wall Street 4.5kgs in the Couplands.
November Rain: This seasons three year-old fillies crop looks to have depth and although currently a maiden this filly won't be out of her depth aginst the better types once the distances get past 1600m. Her sire Stravinsky while better known for his sprinter/milers has left Oaks winners such as Serenade Rose who like November Rain features the stamina influence Sadlers Wells in her female remove.
On paper this year's field looked a bit down in quality, certainly compared to last year, and I thought the race panned out that way. Only four lengths covered the field across the line, bar one horse.
I would be following Celtic Fantasy out of the race. I like his style of racing; he goes forward, relaxes and scraps. It would be interesting to see him get some cover in a race; he maybe able to really let down. Remember he's doing this after just three starts. There's upside with this guy and he's bred and races like he'll get over more ground.
Celtic Fantasy is an interesting horse on type. I'd expected to see either a big tall Giant's Causeway or some resemblence to Pentire Celbre his damsire, in other words lightly boned. Instead he looks to have thrown to the Mill Reef line through his grand dams sire Doyuon. He's generously barelled and proportioned through the shoulder, of medium size and quite athletic.
He didn't get hot in the yard but he had two handlers with him, just more of an indication he's very much learning his trade.
Here's six horses worth following over the summer.
Wealth Princess: A mark of a good horse is an ability to win regardless of race pattern, and that's something this four-year-old mare has already exhibited in her unbeaten three-start career. Blessed with rare aceleration she is able to get out of tight spots as she showed with her win at Te Rapa on Labour Monday. The 41's quote for the Railway is way overs.
Attackum: Running on nicely freshup behind Richard Breymer at Counties. Still lacking some ringcraft but very gifted sprinter as his domestic efforts last autumn, showed running fast sectionals and carrying weight. Subsequently ventured to Australia where his best performance was a third behind rising star Battlefield. Adds intrigue to an even lot of sprinters set to tackle the Railway and Telegraph.
Our Heir Apparent: Never a hope in the VRC Derby after getting back in a slowly run contest. By Zabeel there's good reason to believe he'll be further improved this preparation. Doesn't have the tactical speed of Monaco Consul but if it's a genuinely run NZ Derby he's a legitimate danger to the likely favourite.
Leica Scotch: I must confess to just having a "gut feel"about this Zabeel entire. First up after a year away he ran home strongly for second over 1400m to promising mare Dasoudi. Should improve with the run and more distance but don't get too carried away second up as I'm picking the fresh up run will have taken the sharpness from his legs. Will probably target a race like the Dunstan Final but I pick we can pour rather a tall one after a race such as the Hawkes Bay Cup.
O'Cartier: Showed at the recent Cup Carnival that he had recaptured the form he displayed up north last summer when fourth in a very strong Couplands Mile then backing up to win over 1400m in fast time on Cup day with 58.5kgs. Not a pretty horse particularly when at full gallop but blessed with plenty of heart and class. Remember he gave Wall Street 4.5kgs in the Couplands.
November Rain: This seasons three year-old fillies crop looks to have depth and although currently a maiden this filly won't be out of her depth aginst the better types once the distances get past 1600m. Her sire Stravinsky while better known for his sprinter/milers has left Oaks winners such as Serenade Rose who like November Rain features the stamina influence Sadlers Wells in her female remove.
You ve got to love summer.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Ellerslie Observations 28 November 2009
Ventured out. Amazing sometimes what you find when you least expect it..
There was a good vibe on course which came about on the back of the day been a NZ Racing Xmas at the Races initiative. An encouraging start for the concept.
The rail out 10m gave on pace horses a distinct advantage. Unlike Wanganui the club dodged a bullet with ominous dark clouds all afternoon, which in a stroke of fortune, only displayed their venom as the last race left the gates.
You'll have read about the performances of Desoudi and Run Like Al so I'll leave them alone. Here are some others that caught my eye.
Leica Scotch: An interesting prospect this guy. 1400m fresh up for a year, no trial or blinkers; not exactly characteristics to inspire you to back a Zabeel are they?
He maybe small in stature but he makes up for it. His eye reeks of courage and when he walks, his hindquarters literally touch his ears. Reminds me on type of Hades and Vengeance of Rain.
Got home nicely for second to Desoudi. I don't know what Roger James has in mind but it wouldn't surprise me if he went via the Dunstan to something later on like the HB Cup.
Showcause: Probably still 12 months away physically. Never a winning hope on Saturday but as is his pattern, his best work was his last 100m. Strikes me as a genuine two miler who given his liking for Ellerslie could end up back here in 15 months for an important assignment.
Martial Art: When the moneys goes on a horse from a big stable like it did on this guy on Saturday, it's usually not miss directed.
Was going to win the moment he entered the parade ring. A strongly made individual he looked months ahead of the rest on maturity and he knew it. I've been looking for an NZ Derby horse to follow through to the race and I think I've found him.
Charlotte Russe: More attractive than a lot of Red Ransoms, particularly around the head, which she probably gets from her grand dam who could leave a stunning yearling.
Winding into the race when denied racing room on at least two occasions in the straight, this four-year-old mare will end up a live chance in a good staying handicap before seasons end.
He's Glovin It: I got caught talking to someone and missed seeing him in the yard but looked a lovely big scopey type in his preliminary. Actually could see some resemblance to the Towkay-Millie Munroe filly now racing as The Blonde Bombshell, who hails from the same family. Nice family this and moving again after a hiatius.
I like staying horses lwho get home under their steam and hit the line, and this guys has some of these traits.
I left in the pouring rain thinking one of these horses is going to win a big race, one day, somewhere. Maybe the next month or 6 weeks will tell me which one. It could well be the little guy with small horses syndrome.
There was a good vibe on course which came about on the back of the day been a NZ Racing Xmas at the Races initiative. An encouraging start for the concept.
The rail out 10m gave on pace horses a distinct advantage. Unlike Wanganui the club dodged a bullet with ominous dark clouds all afternoon, which in a stroke of fortune, only displayed their venom as the last race left the gates.
You'll have read about the performances of Desoudi and Run Like Al so I'll leave them alone. Here are some others that caught my eye.
Leica Scotch: An interesting prospect this guy. 1400m fresh up for a year, no trial or blinkers; not exactly characteristics to inspire you to back a Zabeel are they?
He maybe small in stature but he makes up for it. His eye reeks of courage and when he walks, his hindquarters literally touch his ears. Reminds me on type of Hades and Vengeance of Rain.
Got home nicely for second to Desoudi. I don't know what Roger James has in mind but it wouldn't surprise me if he went via the Dunstan to something later on like the HB Cup.
Showcause: Probably still 12 months away physically. Never a winning hope on Saturday but as is his pattern, his best work was his last 100m. Strikes me as a genuine two miler who given his liking for Ellerslie could end up back here in 15 months for an important assignment.
Martial Art: When the moneys goes on a horse from a big stable like it did on this guy on Saturday, it's usually not miss directed.
Was going to win the moment he entered the parade ring. A strongly made individual he looked months ahead of the rest on maturity and he knew it. I've been looking for an NZ Derby horse to follow through to the race and I think I've found him.
Charlotte Russe: More attractive than a lot of Red Ransoms, particularly around the head, which she probably gets from her grand dam who could leave a stunning yearling.
Winding into the race when denied racing room on at least two occasions in the straight, this four-year-old mare will end up a live chance in a good staying handicap before seasons end.
He's Glovin It: I got caught talking to someone and missed seeing him in the yard but looked a lovely big scopey type in his preliminary. Actually could see some resemblance to the Towkay-Millie Munroe filly now racing as The Blonde Bombshell, who hails from the same family. Nice family this and moving again after a hiatius.
I like staying horses lwho get home under their steam and hit the line, and this guys has some of these traits.
I left in the pouring rain thinking one of these horses is going to win a big race, one day, somewhere. Maybe the next month or 6 weeks will tell me which one. It could well be the little guy with small horses syndrome.
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